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首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Social Vulnerability Assessment by Mapping Population Density and Pressure on Cropland in Shandong Province in China during the 17th–20th Century
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Social Vulnerability Assessment by Mapping Population Density and Pressure on Cropland in Shandong Province in China during the 17th–20th Century

机译：通过绘制17-20世纪中国山东省人口密度和耕地压力绘制社会脆弱性评估

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摘要

Cropland area per capita and pressure index on cropland are important parameters for measuring the social vulnerability and sustainability from the perspective of food security in a certain region in China during the historical periods. This study reconstructed the change in spatial distribution of cropland area per labor/household and pressure index on cropland during the 17th–20th century by using historical documents, regression analysis, pressure index model, and GIS (geographic information system). Following this, we analyzed the impacting process of climate change and sustainability of cropland use during the different periods. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (i) there was an obvious spatial difference of labor/household density, as there was higher density in three agricultural areas, which had the same pattern as cropland distribution during the same periods; (ii) Cropland area per capita was relatively higher during the 17th–18th century, which were above 0.4 ha/person in the majority of counties and were distributed homogenously. Until the 19th century and the beginning of 20th century, cropland area per capita in a considerable proportion of regions decreased below 0.2 ha/person, which embodies the increase in social vulnerability and unsustainability at that time; (iii) The pressure index on cropland also showed a spatial pattern similar to cropland area per capita, which presented as having a lower threshold than nowadays. During the 17th–18th century, there was no pressure on cropland. In comparison, in the 19th century and at the beginning of 20th century, two high-value centers of pressure index on cropland appeared in the Middle Shandong and the Jiaodong region. As a result, pressure on cropland use increased and a food crisis was likely to have been created; (iv) A higher extent of sustainable cropland use corresponded to the cold period, while a lower extent of sustainable cropland use corresponded to the warm period in Shandong over the past 300 years. The turning point of the 1680s from dry to wet was not distinctively attributed to the decrease in the extent of sustainable cropland use in Shandong. Since the beginning of the 20th century, the increasing pressure on the sustainability of cropland use finally intensified the social conflict and increased the probability of social revolts.
机译：从历史时期的中国某个地区的粮食安全角度来看，人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数是衡量社会脆弱性和可持续性的重要参数。本研究利用历史文献，回归分析，压力指数模型和GIS（地理信息系统），重建了17-20世纪每个劳动力/家庭的耕地面积空间分布的变化以及农田的压力指数。之后，我们分析了不同时期的气候变化和耕地可持续利用的影响过程。本研究的结论如下：（i）劳动力/家庭密度存在明显的空间差异，因为三个农业地区的密度较高，并且在同一时期的耕地分布方式相同; （ii）在17至18世纪，人均耕地面积相对较高，在大多数县都超过0.4公顷/人，并且分布均匀。直到19世纪和20世纪初，相当一部分地区的人均耕地面积减少到每人0.2公顷以下，这表明当时社会脆弱性和不可持续性的增加; （iii）农田压力指数也显示出类似于人均农田面积的空间格局，呈现出比当今更低的阈值。在17至18世纪，耕地没有受到任何压力。相比之下，在19世纪和20世纪初，山东中部和胶东地区出现了两个高值农田压力指数中心。结果，对耕地使用的压力增加了，很可能造成了粮食危机; （iv）在过去的300年中，较高的可持续耕地利用程度对应于寒冷时期，而较低的可持续耕地利用程度对应于山东温暖时期。 1680年代从干到湿的转折点并没有明显地归因于山东省耕地可持续利用的减少。自20世纪初以来，对耕地利用可持续性的日益增加的压力最终加剧了社会冲突，并增加了社会起义的可能性。

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