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首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Analysis of the Effectiveness of Urban Land-Use-Change Models Based on the Measurement of Spatio-Temporal, Dynamic Urban Growth: A Cellular Automata Case Study
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Analysis of the Effectiveness of Urban Land-Use-Change Models Based on the Measurement of Spatio-Temporal, Dynamic Urban Growth: A Cellular Automata Case Study

机译:基于时空动态城市增长测度的城市土地利用变化模型有效性分析:细胞自动机案例研究

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Developing countries have been undergoing dramatic urban growth over the past three decades. It is essential to understand and simulate the urban growth process for smart urban planning and sustainable development purposes. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is an efficient approach to simulating urban land use/cover change; however, the traditional CA method has limitations in simulating the various urban growth patterns and processes. This study aims to analyze the influences of different urban growth characteristics on the effectiveness of CA modeling by conducting a case study over the area in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. We used the growth rate, landscape expansion index, and spatial dependency to quantify the urban growth characteristics. The effectiveness of CA modeling was measured through a comparison of the simulation results with the reference data. The simulation results and validation analyses reveal that the traditional CA is not applicable for the following three situations: (1) the urban growth pattern characterized by less growth area or a higher ratio of outlying expansion; (2) the urban region that includes several subregions with disparate growth characteristics; and (3) the existence of temporal differences in growth characteristics over a long period.
机译:在过去的三十年中,发展中国家的城市发展迅猛。为了智能城市规划和可持续发展目的,理解和模拟城市增长过程至关重要。元胞自动机(CA)建模是模拟城市土地利用/覆盖变化的有效方法;但是,传统的CA方法在模拟各种城市增长模式和过程方面存在局限性。本研究旨在通过对中国南方珠江三角洲地区进行案例研究,分析不同城市增长特征对CA模型有效性的影响。我们使用增长率,景观扩展指数和空间依赖性来量化城市增长特征。通过将仿真结果与参考数据进行比较来衡量CA建模的有效性。仿真结果和验证分析表明,传统的CA不适用于以下三种情况:(1)以增长面积较小或外围扩张比例较高为特征的城市增长模式。 (2)包括几个具有不同增长特征的次区域的城市区域; (3)长期的生长特征存在时间差异。

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