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首页> 外文期刊>Sustainable Agriculture Research >Impacts of Changes in Exchange Rate and International Prices on Agriculture and Economy of the Sudan: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
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Impacts of Changes in Exchange Rate and International Prices on Agriculture and Economy of the Sudan: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

机译：汇率和国际价格变动对苏丹农业和经济的影响：可计算的一般均衡分析

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Changes in exchange rate and international prices greatly affect food availability, the agricultural sector, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study quantifies the effects of change in exchange rate and world prices on Sudan’s agricultural production, imports, exports, and GDP. Special emphasis has been placed on sorghum and wheat, the main food grains. A Standard Computable General Equilibrium model has been developed and used for the analysis. The main objective is to contribute to policy-making process for enhancing food security and social welfare in the Sudan . Currency depreciation would reduce wheat imports and increase its domestic production, increase sorghum export, increase domestic output and export of sesame and cotton, and improves GDP; and vice versa for appreciation. Appreciation favors urban (wheat) consumers, whereas depreciation favors rural (sorghum) consumers. Increasing world price of wheat would decrease its imports, whereas that of sorghum would encourage its production and export, and increase domestic food prices. GDP decreases due to investment reduction . It is recommended that wheat import should be conditioned on hard currency availability and food gap, while maintaining stable exchange rate that strike a balance between encouraging sorghum exports and wheat imports. It is also recommended to encourage innovation of fast food from traditional grains to curb the shift to wheat consumption.
机译：汇率和国际价格的变化极大地影响了粮食供应，农业部门和国内生产总值。这项研究量化了汇率和世界价格变化对苏丹农业生产，进口，出口和国内生产总值的影响。特别强调了高粱和小麦（主要的粮食谷物）。已经开发了标准可计算一般均衡模型并将其用于分析。主要目标是促进决策过程，以加强苏丹的粮食安全和社会福利。货币贬值将减少小麦进口，增加其国内产量，增加高粱出口，增加国内产量和芝麻和棉花出口，并改善国内生产总值;反之亦然。升值有利于城市（小麦）消费者，而贬值有利于农村（高粱）消费者。世界小麦价格的上涨将减少其进口，而高粱的价格将鼓励其生产和出口，并提高国内粮食价格。 GDP因投资减少而减少。建议小麦进口应以硬通货和粮食缺口为条件，同时保持稳定的汇率，在鼓励高粱出口和小麦进口之间取得平衡。还建议鼓励从传统谷物创新的快餐，以遏制向小麦消费的转变。

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