...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Parasites Vectors >Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy
【24h】

Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy

机译：西尼罗河病毒蚊媒的预警：气候和土地利用模型成功地解释了意大利西北部库蚊的物候和数量

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Background West Nile Virus (WNV) is an emerging global health threat. Transmission risk is strongly related to the abundance of mosquito vectors, typically Culex pipiens in Europe. Early-warning predictors of mosquito population dynamics would therefore help guide entomological surveillance and thereby facilitate early warnings of transmission risk. Methods We analysed an 11-year time series (2001 to 2011) of Cx. pipiens mosquito captures from the Piedmont region of north-western Italy to determine the principal drivers of mosquito population dynamics. Linear mixed models were implemented to examine the relationship between Cx. pipiens population dynamics and environmental predictors including temperature, precipitation, Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the proximity of mosquito traps to urban areas and rice fields. Results Warm temperatures early in the year were associated with an earlier start to the mosquito season and increased season length, and later in the year, with decreased abundance. Early precipitation delayed the start and shortened the length of the mosquito season, but increased total abundance. Conversely, precipitation later in the year was associated with a longer season. Finally, higher NDWI early in the year was associated with an earlier start to the season and increased season length, but was not associated with abundance. Proximity to rice fields predicted higher total abundance when included in some models, but was not a significant predictor of phenology. Proximity to urban areas was not a significant predictor in any of our models. Predicted variations in start of the season and season length ranged from one to three weeks, across the measured range of variables. Predicted mosquito abundance was highly variable, with numbers in excess of 1000 per trap per year when late season temperatures were low (average 21°C) to only 150 when late season temperatures were high (average 30°C). Conclusions Climate data collected early in the year, in conjunction with local land use, can be used to provide early warning of both the timing and magnitude of mosquito outbreaks. This potentially allows targeted mosquito control measures to be implemented, with implications for prevention and control of West Nile Virus and other mosquito borne diseases.
机译：背景西尼罗河病毒（WNV）是一种新兴的全球健康威胁。传播风险与蚊媒的数量（在欧洲通常为淡色库蚊）的数量密切相关。因此，蚊虫种群动态的预警预报器将有助于指导昆虫学监测，从而促进传播风险的预警。方法我们分析了Cx的11年时间序列（2001年至2011年）。 pipiens蚊子从意大利西北部的皮埃蒙特地区捕获，以确定蚊子种群动态的主要驱动因素。实施线性混合模型以检查Cx之间的关系。 pipiens种群动态和环境预测因素，包括温度，降水，归一化差异水指数（NDWI）以及诱蚊器与市区和稻田的距离。结果一年初的温暖温度与蚊虫季节的开始较早和季节长度的增加有关，而在今年晚些时候与丰度下降有关。早期降水推迟了开始时间并缩短了蚊虫的时长，但增加了总的丰度。相反，今年晚些时候的降水与更长的季节有关。最终，NDWI值在年初增加与季节开始较早和季节长度增加有关，但与丰度无关。当包含在某些模型中时，接近稻田可预测较高的总丰度，但不是物候学的重要预测指标。在我们的任何模型中，靠近市区的位置都不是重要的预测指标。在所测量的变量范围内，季节开始和季节长度的预计变化范围为一到三周。预测的蚊子丰度变化很大，当后期温度较低（平均21°C）时，每个诱集器的蚊虫数量每年超过1000，而在后期温度较高（平均30°C）时，蚊子的数量仅为150。结论可以将年初收集的气候数据与当地土地使用情况结合起来，对蚊虫爆发的时间和程度提供预警。这有可能使针对性的蚊虫控制措施得以实施，从而对西尼罗河病毒和其他蚊媒疾病的预防和控制产生影响。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号