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Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

机译：决策中的九种不确定性：应对环境治理中的不确定性的策略

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ABSTRACT Governing complex environmental issues involves intensive interaction between public and private actors. These governance processes are fraught with uncertainties about, for example, the current state of environmental affairs, the relevant set of decision alternatives, the reactions of other actors to proposed solutions or the future developments likely to affect an issue. Uncertainty comes in different shapes and sizes and different strands in the literature, which has placed emphasis either on the substance of the issue (e.g. in environmental sciences) or on the decision-making process (e.g. policy sciences). In this paper, we bring together these different strands of literature on uncertainty to present a novel analytical framework. We build on the argument that the nature of uncertainty consists of three types: epistemic uncertainty (involving the lack of knowledge about a particular system), ontological uncertainty (irreducible unpredictability due to inherently complex system behavior) and ambiguity (conflicts between fundamentally different frames about the issue at hand). Scholars have also argued the importance of differentiating between three different objects of uncertainty : substantive uncertainty (uncertainty about the content of decisions or policy issues), strategic uncertainty (uncertainty about the actions of other actors in the strategic game of decision-making) and institutional uncertainty (uncertainty about the rules of the game in decision-making). The framework is useful for analyzing and addressing the nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making. Better understanding of the range of uncertainties is crucial to design more robust policies and governance arrangements and to deal with wicked environmental problems.
机译：摘要处理复杂的环境问题涉及公共和私人行为者之间的深入互动。这些治理过程充满不确定性，例如，有关环境事务的当前状态，相关的决策方案集，其他参与者对拟议解决方案的反应或可能影响某个问题的未来发展。不确定性在文献中有不同的形状，大小和不同的层次，这既强调了问题的实质（例如环境科学），又强调了决策过程（例如政策科学）。在本文中，我们将不确定性方面的这些不同文献整合在一起，以提出一个新颖的分析框架。我们基于这样的论点，即不确定性的性质包括三种类型：认知不确定性（涉及对特定系统的知识的缺乏），本体论不确定性（由于固有的复杂系统行为而导致的不可预测性）和歧义性（根本不同框架之间的冲突）。问题）。学者们还指出了区分三个不同的不确定性对象的重要性：实质性不确定性（决策或政策问题的内容的不确定性），战略不确定性（决策者在决策的战略博弈中其他参与者的行为的不确定性）和制度性不确定性（决策中游戏规则的不确定性）。该框架对于分析和解决决策中的不确定性的九个方面很有用。更好地了解不确定性的范围对于设计更强大的政策和治理安排以及解决恶劣的环境问题至关重要。

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