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首页> 外文期刊>PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases >Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia
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Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia

机译：基于赞比亚东部省的罗得西亚人非洲锥虫病的基于代理的模型，探索人类和动物种群增长对媒介传播疾病的影响

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Author summary African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease which affects humans and other animals in 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The disease is transmitted by the tsetse fly, and the human form of the disease is known as sleeping sickness. With human and animal populations growing across Africa, demand for space to settle is on the rise, and people are being forced to occupy increasingly marginal spaces. This behaviour has the potential to increase exposure to pre-existing biological hazards, including vector-borne diseases. This investigation utilises agent-based modelling techniques to investigate the implications of a growing and spreading human and animal population in a region affected by Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis. The model incorporates previously developed spatial data for the Luangwa Valley case study in Zambia, along with demographic data for its current inhabitants, and a detailed, seasonally-driven tsetse lifecycle. Tsetse and potential human and animal hosts are modelled at the individual level, allowing each contact and infection to be recorded through time. By modelling at a fine-scale, we can incorporate detailed mechanisms for tsetse birth, feeding, reproduction and death, as well as a realistic theoretical human and domestic animal population increase, before considering the possible spatial and demographic impact.
机译：作者摘要非洲锥虫病是一种寄生虫病，会影响撒哈拉以南非洲36个国家的人类和其他动物。该病是由采采蝇传播的，人的疾病形式是昏睡病。随着非洲各地人类和动物种群的增长，对定居空间的需求正在上升，人们被迫占据越来越多的边缘空间。这种行为有可能增加对先前存在的生物危害的暴露，包括媒介传播的疾病。这项调查利用基于代理的建模技​​术来调查受罗得西亚人非洲锥虫病影响的地区中不断增长的人类和动物种群的影响。该模型结合了先前为赞比亚的Luangwa山谷案例研究开发的空间数据，其现有居民的人口统计数据以及详细的，季节性驱动的采采蝇生命周期。采采蝇以及潜在的人和动物宿主在个体水平上进行建模，从而可以随时记录每次接触和感染。通过精细建模，我们可以在考虑可能的空间和人口影响之前，结合采采蝇出生，进食，繁殖和死亡的详细机制，以及人类和家畜的理论上的现实增长。

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