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首页> 外文期刊>Population health metrics >Projected growth of the adult congenital heart disease population in the United States to 2050: an integrative systems modeling approach
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Projected growth of the adult congenital heart disease population in the United States to 2050: an integrative systems modeling approach

机译：到2050年，美国成年先天性心脏病人口的预计增长：综合系统建模方法

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Background Mortality for children with congenital heart disease (CHD) has declined with improved surgical techniques and neonatal screening; however, as these patients live longer, accurate estimates of the prevalence of adults with CHD are lacking. Methods To determine the prevalence and mortality trends of adults with CHD, we combined National Vital Statistics System data and National Health Interview Survey data using an integrative systems model to determine the prevalence of recalled CHD as a function of age, sex, and year (by recalled CHD, we mean positive response to the question “has a doctor told you that (name) has congenital heart disease?”, which is a conservative lower-bound estimate of CHD prevalence). We used Human Mortality Database estimates and US Census Department projections of the US population to calculate the CHD-prevalent population by age, sex, and year. The primary outcome was prevalence of recalled CHD in adults from 1970 to 2050; the secondary outcomes were birth prevalence and mortality rates by sex and women of childbearing age (15–49 years). Results The birth prevalence of recalled CHD in 2010 for males was 3.29 per 1,000 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 2.8–3.6), and for females was 3.23 per 1,000 (95 % UI 2.3–3.6). From 1968 to 2010, mortality among zero to 51-week-olds declined from 170 to 53 per 100,000 person years. The estimated number of adults (age 20–64 years) with recalled CHD in 1968 was 118,000 (95 % UI 72,000–150,000). By 2010, there was an increase by a factor of 2.3 (95 % UI 2.2–2.6), to 273,000 (95 % UI 190,000–330,000). There will be an estimated 510,000 (95 % UI: 400,000–580,000) in 2050. The prevalence of adults with recalled CHD will begin to plateau around the year 2050. In 2010, there were 134,000 (95 % UI 69,000–160,000) reproductive-age females (age 15–49 years) with recalled CHD in the United States. Conclusion Mortality rates have decreased in infants and the prevalence of adults with CHD has increased but will slow down around 2050. This population requires adult medical systems with providers experienced in the care of adult CHD patients, including those familiar with reproduction in women with CHD.
机译：背景随着改良的手术技术和新生儿筛查，先天性心脏病（CHD）患儿的死亡率有所下降。然而，由于这些患者的寿命更长，因此尚缺乏对成人冠心病患病率的准确估算。方法为了确定成人冠心病的患病率和死亡率趋势，我们使用综合系统模型将国家生命统计系统数据和国家卫生访问调查数据相结合，以确定召回冠心病的患病率与年龄，性别和年龄之间的关系。回忆起冠心病，我们的意思是对“是否有医生告诉您（姓名）患有先天性心脏病？”的问题得到了肯定的回答，这是对冠心病患病率的保守估计。我们使用人类死亡率数据库估计值和美国人口普查局对美国人口的预测来计算按年龄，性别和年份划分的冠心病流行人群。主要结果是1970年至2050年成人召回的CHD患病率。次要结果是按性别和育龄妇女（15-49岁）的出生率和死亡率。结果2010年，召回冠心病的男性患病率为每千人3.29（95％不确定区间（UI）2.8–3.6），女性为每千人3.23（95％UI 2.3–3.6）。从1968年到2010年，零周龄至51周龄儿童的死亡率从每100,000人年170降至53。 1968年召回冠心病的成年人（20-64岁）的估计人数为118,000（95％UI为72,000-150,000）。到2010年，增长了2.3倍（UI 2.2-2.6的95％），达到273,000（UI 190,000-330,000的95％）。到2050年，估计将有510,000（95％UI：400,000–580,000）。患有召回冠心病的成年人的患病率将在2050年左右开始趋于平稳。2010年，有134,000（95％UI：69,000–160,000）生殖生殖活动。美国召回冠心病的年龄在15岁至49岁之间的女性。结论婴儿死亡率下降，成人冠心病的患病率增加，但在2050年左右将减慢。该人群需要成人医疗系统，并应具有在成人冠心病患者，包括熟悉冠心病女性生殖方面经验丰富的医护人员。

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