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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences >Improving predictions of the effects of extreme events, land use, and climate change on the hydrology of watersheds in the Philippines
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Improving predictions of the effects of extreme events, land use, and climate change on the hydrology of watersheds in the Philippines

机译：改进对极端事件，土地利用和气候变化对菲律宾流域水文学的影响的预测

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Due to its location within the typhoon belt, the Philippines is vulnerable to tropical cyclones that can cause destructive floods. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these risks through increases in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. To protect populations and infrastructure, disaster risk management in the Philippines focuses on real-time flood forecasting and structural measures such as dikes and retaining walls. Real-time flood forecasting in the Philippines mostly utilises two models from the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) for watershed modelling, and the River Analysis System (RAS) for inundation modelling. This research focuses on using non-structural measures for flood mitigation, such as changing land use management or watershed rehabilitation. This is being done by parameterising and applying the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) model to the Cagayan de Oro watershed (1400a?ˉkmsup2/sup) in southern Philippines. The LUCI model is capable of identifying areas providing ecosystem services such as flood mitigation and agricultural productivity, and analysing trade-offs between services. It can also assess whether management interventions could enhance or degrade ecosystem services at fine spatial scales. The LUCI model was used to identify areas within the watershed that are providing flood mitigating services and areas that would benefit from management interventions. For the preliminary comparison, LUCI and HEC-HMS were run under the same scenario baseline land use and the extreme rainfall event of Typhoon Bopha. The hydrographs from both models were then input to HEC-RAS to produce inundation maps. The novelty of this research is two-fold (1)??this type of ecosystem service modelling has not been carried out in the Cagayan de Oro watershed; and (2)??this is the first application of the LUCI model in the Philippines. Since this research is still ongoing, the results presented in this paper are preliminary. As the land use and soil parameterisation for this watershed are refined and more scenarios are run through the model, more robust comparisons can be made between the hydrographs produced by LUCI and HEC-HMS and how those differences affect the inundation map produced by HEC-RAS.
机译：由于位于台风带内，菲律宾易受热带气旋的影响，可能造成破坏性洪水。气候变化可能会通过增加热带气旋的频率和强度来加剧这些风险。为了保护人口和基础设施，菲律宾的灾害风险管理侧重于实时洪水预报和堤防和挡土墙等结构性措施。菲律宾的实时洪水预报主要利用以下两种模型：水文工程中心（HEC），水文建模系统（HMS）和流域分析的河流分析系统（RAS）。这项研究的重点是使用非结构性措施来缓解洪水，例如改变土地使用管理或流域恢复。这是通过参数化土地利用和能力指标（LUCI）模型并将其应用于菲律宾南部的Cagayan de Oro流域（1400a？ˉkm 2 ）来完成的。 LUCI模型能够识别提供生态系统服务的区域，例如减灾和农业生产力，并分析服务之间的权衡。它还可以评估管理干预措施是否可以在精细的空间尺度上增强或降低生态系统服务。 LUCI模型用于识别流域内正在提供减灾服务的区域以及将从管理干预中受益的区域。为了进行初步比较，LUCI和HEC-HMS在相同的基准土地使用情况和台风Bopha极端降雨事件下运行。然后将两个模型的水文图输入到HEC-RAS，以生成淹没图。这项研究的新颖性有两个方面（1）尚未在Cagayan de Oro流域进行这种类型的生态系统服务建模; （2）这是LUCI模型在菲律宾的首次应用。由于这项研究仍在进行中，因此本文提供的结果只是初步的。由于该流域的土地利用和土壤参数化得到了完善，并且通过该模型运行了更多方案，因此可以在LUCI和HEC-HMS产生的水文图之间进行更强有力的比较，以及这些差异如何影响HEC-RAS产生的淹没图。

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