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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences >Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change
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Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change

机译：中国农村地表水灌溉的村级供应可靠性：气候变化的影响

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Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30?years. A Tobit model?(or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74?% in the past 3?years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.
机译：地表水是水资源的最大组成部分，对中国的农业生产和粮食安全具有重要作用。而且地表水容易受到气候变化的影响。本文旨在探讨地表水灌溉的供应可靠性状况，并探讨其如何受到中国农村气候变化的影响。我们在这项研究中使用的实地数据来自2012年至2013年的9个省的实地调查。气候数据由中国国家气象信息中心提供，其中包含过去30年的温度和降水量。用Tobit模型（或删失回归模型）估计气候变化对地表水灌溉供应可靠性的影响。描述性结果表明，在过去3年中，地表水的供水可靠性为74％。计量经济学结果表明，气候变量显着影响了地表水灌溉的供应可靠性。具体而言，温度与地表水灌溉的供应可靠性负相关;但是降水对地表水供应的可靠性产生积极影响。此外，气候影响因季节而异。总之，本文从微观角度提高了我们对气候变化对农业灌溉和供水可靠性的影响的理解，并为相关政策制定提供了科学依据。

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