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首页> 外文期刊>Universal Journal of Geoscience >Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-Ecological Zones – a Case Study of Taita Hills, Kenya
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Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-Ecological Zones – a Case Study of Taita Hills, Kenya

机译：模拟气候变化对农业生态区的影响-肯尼亚泰塔山的案例研究

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摘要

Climate variations all over the world have huge potential impacts to the environment at large. Human and economic activities are not left behind when climate change issues are concerned. Agriculture, being the core human and one of the basic economic activities is severely hampered by climate variations. In Africa, and specifically in Kenya, there has been rampant change in the growing patterns of some crops. Farmers lack knowledge that ascertains the reason behind the low income from their farm produce. The main research objective in this study is to determine the variation of agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of Taita hills in Kenya based on climate changes. Specific objectives are: Mapping historical climate data (1960-2010) and comparing with future climate datasets of 2050, matching the layers in a grid cell (Agro-ecological cell) using Geographical Information System (GIS) and delineating the AEZ based on selected parameters. This paper shows the development of AEZ for Taita hills in Kenya from a GIS point of view and develops a model of its variation given that climate is varying over a period of time. It gives a prediction for the variation of the zones based on climate change in the year 2050. A comparison of the historical and future AEZ is shown and is used to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural land. Finally it addresses the sensitive question of economical value to the farmers given that there will be a change and gives some remarks on possible farming practices that the farmers can adopt.
机译：全世界的气候变化对整个环境都有巨大的潜在影响。当涉及到气候变化问题时，人类和经济活动就不会落伍。农业作为人类的核心和基本经济活动之一，受到气候变化的严重阻碍。在非洲，特别是在肯尼亚，某些农作物的生长方式发生了急剧变化。农民缺乏知识来确定其农产品收入低的原因。本研究的主要研究目标是根据气候变化确定肯尼亚泰塔山的农业生态区（AEZ）的变化。具体目标是：绘制历史气候数据（1960-2010年）并与2050年的未来气候数据集进行比较，使用地理信息系统（GIS）匹配网格单元（农业生态单元）中的图层，并根据选定的参数描绘AEZ 。本文从GIS的角度显示了肯尼亚Taita丘陵的AEZ的发展情况，并针对气候在一段时间内变化的情况，开发了其变化模型。它提供了基于2050年气候变化的区域变化预测。显示了历史和未来经济特区的比较，并用于评估气候变化对农业用地的影响。最后，它提出了一个可能发生的变化，即对农民的经济价值敏感问题，并对农民可以采用的可能的耕作方式作了一些评论。

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