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首页> 外文期刊>Urban Science >Can Shrinking Cities Demolish Vacancy? An Empirical Evaluation of a Demolition-First Approach to Vacancy Management in Buffalo, NY, USA
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Can Shrinking Cities Demolish Vacancy? An Empirical Evaluation of a Demolition-First Approach to Vacancy Management in Buffalo, NY, USA

机译：萎缩的城市会毁掉空缺吗？美国纽约州布法罗的空运管理中“拆迁优先”方法的实证评估

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Publicly-funded demolition of vacant structures is an essential tool used in shrinking cities to eliminate nuisances and, often, reduce vacancy rates. Concerning the latter, however, when shrinking cities implement large-scale demolition programs independent of complementary planning efforts, it is reasonable to expect impacts on vacancy to be negligible. Among other reasons, demolition operates only on the outflow of existing vacant structures and largely fails to grapple with inflows that add to vacancy over time. This article evaluates an ambitious demolition program in Buffalo, NY, USA, that sought, explicitly, to lower the municipality’s overall vacancy rate. Evidence from statistical changepoint models and Granger tests suggest that, while Buffalo’s overall vacancy rate, measured as undeliverable postal addresses, appeared to decrease around the time of the program, the drop was not linked to elevated demolition activity. The same finding holds for the subarea in which demolitions were spatiotemporally clustered. Although this lack of efficacy is potentially because the city failed to demolish its targeted number of structures, we argue that the likelier explanation is that demolition was not part of a holistic planning strategy. These results have important implications for using large-scale demolition programs as standalone vacancy management policies in shrinking cities.
机译：由政府资助的空置建筑物拆除是缩小城市规模以消除滋扰并经常减少空置率的重要工具。但是，关于后者，当萎缩的城市执行独立于补充规划工作的大规模拆除计划时，可以合理地预期对空置的影响可以忽略不计。除其他原因外，拆除仅在现有空置建筑物外流的情况下进行，并且很大程度上无法解决随着时间推移而增加空置的流入。本文评估了美国纽约州布法罗市一项雄心勃勃的拆除计划，该计划旨在明确降低市政当局的总体空置率。来自统计变更点模型和Granger测试的证据表明，尽管布法罗的整体空缺率（以无法投递的邮政地址衡量）在计划实施期间似乎有所减少，但下降与拆迁活动的增加无关。同样的发现适用于拆除时空聚集的分区。尽管缺乏效率可能是因为该市未能拆除其目标数量的建筑物，但我们认为，更可能的解释是拆除并非整体规划策略的一部分。这些结果对于在缩小的城市中将大规模拆迁计划作为独立的空缺管理政策具有重要意义。

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