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Selective drop-out in longitudinal studies and non-biased prediction of behaviour disorders

机译:纵向研究中的选择性辍学和行为障碍的无偏预测

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Background Participant drop-out occurs in all longitudinal studies, and if systematic, may lead to selection biases and erroneous conclusions being drawn from a study. Aims We investigated whether drop out in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) was systematic or random, and if systematic, whether it had an impact on the prediction of disruptive behaviour disorders. Method Teacher reports of disruptive behaviour among currently participating, previously participating and never participating children aged 8 years in the ALSPAC longitudinal study were collected. Data on family factors were obtained in pregnancy. Simulations were conducted to explain the impact of selective drop-out on the strength of prediction. Results Drop out from the ALSPAC cohort was systematic and children who dropped out were more likely to suffer from disruptive behaviour disorder. Systematic participant drop-out according to the family variables, however, did not alter the association between family factors obtained in pregnancy and disruptive behaviour disorder at 8 years of age. Conclusions Cohort studies are prone to selective drop-out and are likely to underestimate the prevalence of psychiatric disorder. This empirical study and the simulations confirm that the validity of regression models is only marginally affected despite range restrictions after selective drop-out.
机译:背景参加者的辍学发生在所有纵向研究中,并且如果是系统性的,则可能导致选择偏倚和从研究中得出错误的结论。目的我们调查了雅芳父母和儿童纵向研究(ALSPAC)中的辍学是系统的还是随机的,如果是系统的,则是否对破坏性行为障碍的预测有影响。方法收集了ALSPAC纵向研究中8岁以下当前参与,先前参与和从未参与的儿童中破坏行为的教师报告。有关家庭因素的数据是在怀孕期间获得的。进行模拟以解释选择性辍学对预测强度的影响。结果ALSPAC队列中的辍学是系统性的,辍学的孩子更容易遭受破坏性行为障碍的困扰。然而,根据家庭变量的系统性参与者辍学并未改变妊娠获得的家庭因素与8岁时的破坏性行为障碍之间的关联。结论队列研究倾向于选择性辍学,并且可能低估了精神疾病的患病率。这项经验研究和仿真结果证实,尽管选择性退出后范围受到限制,回归模型的有效性仅受到很小的影响。

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