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首页> 外文期刊>The British journal of psychiatry : >Predicting the development of schizophrenia in high-risk populations: systematic review of the predictive validity of prodromal criteria
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Predicting the development of schizophrenia in high-risk populations: systematic review of the predictive validity of prodromal criteria

机译：预测高危人群的精神分裂症的发展：前驱标准的预测有效性的系统评价

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Background There is a great deal of debate on the usefulness and accuracy of prodromal criteria in predicting schizophrenia. The risk of treating people who screen false positive with medication is considerable. Yet intervening during the prodromal stage of illness may reduce the burden caused by schizophrenia. Aims To draw together the evidence base for the predictive validity of prodromal criteria in identifying individuals at high risk of developing schizophrenia. Method We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies investigating the predictive validity of prodromal criteria in schizophrenia. Results Our study found two main criteria, ultra-high-risk criteria and basic-symptoms criteria, used in studies investigating the predictive validity of prodromal symptoms. The sensitivity and specificity of ultra-high-risk criteria was 0.81 (95% CI 0.76a€“0.85) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64a€“0.70) respectively and for basic-symptoms criteria sensitivity and specificity was 0.97 (95% CI 0.91a€“1.00) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.48a€“0.70) respectively. Conclusions Both ultra-high-risk criteria and basic-symptoms criteria are useful in predicting the development of schizophrenia among high-risk populations.
机译：背景技术关于前驱标准在预测精神分裂症中的有用性和准确性的争论很多。用药物治疗筛查假阳性的人的风险很大。然而，在疾病的前驱阶段进行干预可以减轻精神分裂症的负担。目的汇总前驱标准在鉴定高发性精神分裂症风险个体中的预测有效性的证据基础。方法我们对前瞻性研究进行了系统的综述，以探讨精神分裂症前驱标准的预测有效性。结果我们的研究发现了两个主要标准，即超高危标准和基本症状标准，用于研究前驱症状的预测有效性。超高危标准的敏感性和特异性分别为0.81（95％CI 0.76a？0.85）和0.67（95％CI 0.64a？0.70），对于基本症状标准，敏感性和特异性为0.97（95％ CI为0.91a？1.00）和0.59（95％CI 0.48a？0.70）。结论超高危标准和基本症状标准均有助于预测高危人群的精神分裂症的发展。

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