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首页> 外文期刊>The British journal of psychiatry : >Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments
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Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments

机译：精算风险评估工具的精度

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Background Actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) estimate the probability that individuals will engage in future violence. Aims To evaluate the `margins of error' at the group and individual level for risk estimates made using ARAIs. Method An established statistical method was used to construct 95% CI for group and individual risk estimates made using two popular ARAIs. Results The 95% CI were large for risk estimates at the group level; at the individual level, they were so high as to render risk estimates virtually meaningless. Conclusions The ARAIs cannot be used to estimate an individual's risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with great caution or not at all. In theory, reasonably precise group estimates could be made using ARAIs if developers used very large construction samples and if the tests included few score categories with extreme risk estimates.
机译：背景精算风险评估工具（ARAIs）估计个人将来从事暴力活动的可能性。目的评估使用ARAI进行的风险估计在小组和个人层面的“误差范围”。方法采用既定的统计方法，对使用两种流行的ARAI进行的群体和个人风险评估构建95％CI。结果95％的置信区间对于组一级的风险估计而言较大;在个人层面上，它们是如此之高，以至于风险评估几乎毫无意义。结论ARAI不能以任何合理的确定性程度来估计个人将来遭受暴力侵害的风险，应谨慎使用或完全不使用。从理论上讲，如果开发人员使用非常大的建筑样本并且测试中很少包含具有极端风险估计值的评分类别，则可以使用ARAI进行合理精确的组估计。

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