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首页> 外文期刊>The Cryosphere >Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat
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Limitations of a coupled regional climate model in the reproduction of the observed Arctic sea-ice retreat

机译：耦合的区域气候模型在观测的北极海冰撤退中的局限性

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The effects of internal model variability on the simulation of Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been examined with the aid of a seven-member ensemble with a coupled regional climate model for the period 1948–2008. Beyond general weaknesses related to insufficient representation of feedback processes, it is found that the model's ability to reproduce observed summer sea-ice retreat depends mainly on two factors: the correct simulation of the atmospheric circulation during the summer months and the sea-ice volume at the beginning of the melting period. Since internal model variability shows its maximum during the summer months, the ability to reproduce the observed atmospheric summer circulation is limited. In addition, the atmospheric circulation during summer also significantly affects the sea-ice volume over the years leading to a limited ability to start with reasonable sea-ice volume into the melting period. Furthermore, the sea-ice volume pathway shows notable decadal variability that varies in amplitude among the ensemble members. The scatter is particularly large in periods when the ice volume increases, indicating limited skill in reproducing high-ice years.
机译：内部模型变异性对北极海冰范围和体积模拟的影响已借助一个由七个成员组成的集合以及一个耦合的1948-2008年区域气候模型进行了检验。除了与反馈过程表示不充分相关的一般缺陷外，还发现该模型再现观测到的夏季海冰退缩的能力主要取决于两个因素：夏季几个月大气环流的正确模拟和海平面处海冰的体积。融化期的开始。由于内部模型的变异性在夏季月份显示出最大值，因此再现观测到的夏季大气环流的能力受到限制。另外，多年来的夏季大气环流还显着影响海冰体积，导致以合理的海冰体积开始进入融化期的能力有限。此外，海冰体积路径显示出明显的年代际变化，该变化在集合成员之间变化。在冰量增加的时期中，散射特别大，表明再现高冰期的技能有限。

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