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首页> 外文期刊>The British journal of psychiatry : >Predicting community violence from patients discharged from mental health services
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Predicting community violence from patients discharged from mental health services

机译：预测心理健康服务出院患者的社区暴力

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Background The MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study (MacVRAS) in the USA provided strong evidence to support an actuarial approach in community violence risk assessment. Aims To examine the predictive accuracy of the MacVRAS measures, in addition to structured professional judgement, in a UK sample of patients discharged from in-patient care in the north-west of England. Method A prospective study of 112 participants assessed pre-discharge and followed up at 24 weeks post-discharge. Pre-discharge measures were compared with prevalence of violent behaviour to determine predictive validity of risk factors. Results Historical measures of risk and measures of psychopathy, impulsiveness and anger were highly predictive of community violence. The more dynamic clinical and risk management factors derived from structured professional judgement (rated atdischarge) added significant incremental validity to the historical factors in predicting community violence. Conclusions Although static measures of risk relating to past history and personality make an important contribution to assessment of violence risk, consideration of current dynamic factors relating to illness and risk management significantly improves predictive accuracy.
机译：背景技术美国的麦克阿瑟暴力风险评估研究（MacVRAS）提供了有力的证据来支持在社区暴力风险评估中采用精算方法。目的在英国西北部的住院病人中，从英国的样本中检查MacVRAS措施的预测准确性以及结构化的专业判断。方法一项针对112名参与者的前瞻性研究评估了出院前和出院后24周的随访情况。将出院前的措施与暴力行为的发生率进行比较，以确定危险因素的预测有效性。结果历史风险和精神病，冲动和愤怒的措施可以高度预测社区暴力。由结构化专业判断（出院时的评分）得出的更具动态性的临床和风险管理因素，在预测社区暴力的历史因素中增加了显着的增量有效性。结论尽管与过去的历史和人格相关的静态风险评估对评估暴力风险做出了重要贡献，但考虑到当前与疾病和风险管理相关的动态因素，可以显着提高预测准确性。

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