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Operating speed as a key factor in studying the driver behaviour in a rural context

机译：行驶速度是研究农村地区驾驶员行为的关键因素

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The research aims to explore the effects of geometric road features on driver speed behaviour in order to identify unsafe road segments where high reductions in speed between successive road elements occur. The sample involves two-lane rural roads on flat terrain (vertical grade less than 5%) in Southern Italy, totalling 184 km without spiral transition curves between the tangent segments and circular elements. The testing was carried out on 567 study sites, of which 248 are on circular curves and 319 on tangents. Speed data collection was carried out in environmental and traffic conditions using a laser. The conditions were the following: dry roads, free flow conditions, daylight hours and good weather conditions. The main goal was to calibrate and validate different operating speed prediction models: a) one model on tangent segments; b) one model on circular curves; c) only one model to be used at the same time on tangents and circular curves. The validation process involved almost 10% of the total road network length, that was removed from the calibration phase. The speed measurements of each of the first two datasets (a, b) were grouped into ten homogeneous substrates while for the remaining dataset (c) sixteen substrates were defined by using a hard c-means algorithm. Two statistical criteria were used to remove anomalous operating speed values from each group of three datasets, namely, the Chauvenet criterion and the Vivatrat method. The first criterion was preferred in the final process of model selection. The results of the first filtering procedure showed more homogeneous samples that guaranteed a higher correlation coefficient and lower residuals of the predictive models during the validation phase than the Vivatrat method. The models were developed using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The explanatory variables were total segment length, lane width, curvature of the road element, the curvature change rate on homogeneous road segments, and the number of residential driveways per km. ANOVA and additional synthetic statistical parameters were assessed to check the effectiveness of using a single general model to predict operating speeds at the same time on tangents and on circular curves alike. The results suggested the reliability of this hypothesis and its effectiveness in bringing advantages during the application phase.
机译：该研究旨在探讨几何道路特征对驾驶员速度行为的影响，以识别不安全的路段，在这些路段中连续的路段元素之间的速度会大大降低。该样本涉及意大利南部平坦地形（垂直坡度小于5％）的两车道乡村道路，全长184 km，在切线段和圆形元素之间没有螺旋过渡曲线。该测试在567个研究地点进行，其中248条位于圆形曲线上，而319条位于切线上。使用激光在环境和交通条件下进行速度数据收集。条件如下：干燥的道路，自由通行的条件，白天和良好的天气条件。主要目标是校准和验证不同的运行速度预测模型：a）切线段上的一个模型; b）圆曲线上的一个模型; c）在切线和圆曲线上只能同时使用一个模型。验证过程涉及道路网总长度的近10％，已从校准阶段中删除。前两个数据集（a，b）中每个数据的速度测量结果被分组为十个均质基底，而对于其余数据集（c），使用硬c-means算法定义了十六个基底。使用两个统计标准从三个数据集的每个组中删除异常运行速度值，即Chauvenet准则和Vivatrat方法。在模型选择的最终过程中，首选第一个标准。第一个过滤过程的结果表明，与Vivatrat方法相比，在验证阶段可以确保更高的相关系数和更低的预测模型残差，从而获得更均匀的样本。这些模型是使用普通最小二乘（OLS）方法开发的。解释变量为总路段长度，车道宽度，道路要素的曲率，均质路段的曲率变化率以及每公里的住宅车道数量。评估了方差分析和其他综合统计参数，以检查使用单个通用模型同时预测切线和圆曲线上的运行速度的有效性。结果表明该假设的可靠性及其在应用阶段带来优势的有效性。

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