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Risk-based quantification of the impact of climate change on storm water infrastructure

机译：基于风险的气候变化对雨水基础设施影响的量化

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Storm water detention ponds are usually designed to store-and-release the runoff of extreme rainfall events based on a selected return period, e.g., 100 years. The design storm is typically a recorded historical event or one that is extracted from historical intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. In essence, the selected storm and the resulting design are deterministic. In this research, the inevitable natural weather variability and its impact on the uncertainty of extreme events are simulated and quantified. This study builds on the results of a previous study where a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, was used to generate an ensemble of series with a 30-year length of hourly rainfall in the city of Saskatoon, Canada, based on the statistical properties of historical rainfall. Here, the most critical day (24-h rainfall) of each of the series is identified as a possible realization of the design storm. The runoff of each realization of the storm events is routed to a storm water pond in Saskatoon using the XPSWMM model. The critical runoff volume collected in the pond throughout the 24-h duration is also identified. Empirical probability distributions are fitted to the critical values of runoff volumes collected in the pond and compared with the current design storage. Exceedance probabilities and expected flood risk are estimated from the probability distributions for the baseline period (1960–1990), as well as under three projected future (2014–2100) scenarios of climate change (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Along with the magnitude of expected risk, this method provides the probability of the infrastructure’s failure due to uncertainty. The proposed risk-based approach presented in this study provides a way for municipalities to quantify the risk associated with their selected design values and for tangible and meaningful interpretation of the risks that projected climate change might pose on storm water infrastructure. The main finding of this study is that the distribution of rain throughout the storm event may play a more important role than the total rainfall depth when water ponding/flooding is the major concern. It is further concluded that risk analysis must be tailored to the type of infrastructure under consideration.
机译：雨水滞留池通常设计为根据选定的返回期（例如100年）存储和释放极端降雨事件的径流。设计风暴通常是记录的历史事件，或者是从历史强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线中提取的事件。从本质上讲，选定的风暴和最终的设计是确定性的。在这项研究中，模拟和量化了不可避免的自然天气变化及其对极端事件不确定性的影响。本研究基于先前研究的结果，该研究使用随机天气生成器LARS-WG根据加拿大统计数据在加拿大萨斯卡通市以每小时降水30年的长度来生成一系列合奏。历史降雨量。在这里，每个系列中最关键的一天（24小时降雨）被确定为设计风暴的可能实现。使用XPSWMM模型将每次暴风雨事件的径流发送到萨斯卡通的暴雨水池。还确定了整个24小时内在池塘中收集的临界径流量。将经验概率分布拟合到池塘中收集的径流量的临界值，并与当前设计存储进行比较。超出概率和预期洪水风险是根据基线期（1960–1990）以及三种预计的未来（2014–2100）气候变化情景（RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5）的概率分布估算的。与预期风险的大小一起，此方法还提供了由于不确定性导致基础架构崩溃的可能性。本研究中提出的基于风险的拟议方法为市政当局量化与其所选设计值相关的风险提供了一种途径，并为对预计的气候变化可能对雨水基础设施造成的风险进行了切实而有意义的解释。这项研究的主要发现是，当主要考虑蓄水/洪水时，整个风暴事件中的降雨分布可能比总降雨深度更重要。进一步得出结论，风险分析必须针对所考虑的基础架构类型进行调整。

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