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Simulation Framework for Asset Management in Climate-change Adaptation of Transportation Infrastructure

机译:交通基础设施适应气候变化资产管理仿真框架

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Climate change will have a big impact on our infrastructure assets. Asset managers need decision support tools that can consider climate change impacts on these infrastructures. Infrastructures have very long life spans and climate change is also a long-term phenomenon. Climate change is also associated with a lot of uncertainty, making it more challenging for asset managers to make investment plans on these infrastructures. Unfortunately, existing tools for asset management are based on short-term operational and financial aspects of maintenance rather than strategic long-term assessments. These tools also treat infrastructure in silos, often ignoring the impact of other interconnected infrastructure on them. In this paper, we present a simulation framework that can help asset managers in assessing long term strategic plans for their assets along with the possibilities to include the uncertain behavior of climate impacts and the impact from other interconnected infrastructure. We use agent-based modelling approach to represent assets, asset owners and asset users as agents and study their interactions and the evolving behavior based on the decisions the agents make to maintain or to use the assets. This approach helps in understanding: the consequences of long-term strategic plans of asset managers and of user behavior, in identifying vulnerable areas in a transportation network, and in estimating the impact from other assets. In our case study on a transportation network, we observed an underestimation of damages from climate events when infrastructures were treated in silos. The framework has a potential to answer wide range of questions for asset managers in the context of climate change and its impact on interconnected infrastructure.
机译:气候变化将对我们的基础设施资产产生重大影响。资产经理需要决策支持工具,可以考虑气候变化对这些基础设施的影响。基础设施的使用寿命很长,气候变化也是一种长期现象。气候变化还带来很多不确定性,这使得资产管理者在这些基础设施上制定投资计划更具挑战性。不幸的是,现有的资产管理工具是基于维护的短期运营和财务方面,而不是战略性的长期评估。这些工具还以孤岛形式对待基础架构,通常会忽略其他互连基础架构对其的影响。在本文中,我们提供了一个模拟框架,可以帮助资产管理人评估其资产的长期战略计划,并包括将气候影响的不确定性行为以及其他互连基础设施的影响包括在内的可能性。我们使用基于代理的建模方法将资产,资产所有者和资产用户表示为代理,并根据代理为维护或使用资产所做的决策来研究它们之间的相互作用以及行为的演变。这种方法有助于理解:资产管理者的长期战略计划和用户行为的后果,确定运输网络中的脆弱区域,以及估计其他资产的影响。在我们关于交通网络的案例研究中,我们观察到当基础设施以筒仓形式处理时,气候事件造成的损害被低估了。该框架有可能在气候变化及其对互联基础设施的影响的背景下,为资产管理者回答广泛的问题。

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