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Improving Projects Evaluations in Analyzing Transport Models Ability to Explain the Past

机译：在分析运输模型的能力方面改进项目评估

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GLOBAL, the RATP transportation model, was recently updated to its 9th version. This was the opportunity to reconsider its methodology, and, more generally, the relevance of four-stage models for medium-to-long term planning studies. Indeed, a model's validity is generally assessed through its ability to replicate traffic counts. Considering that a good replication of the present leads to an accurate forecast of the future is an important assumption. It mainly implies a hypothesis of stability of mobility behavior, which could be questionable, and even more when many parameters are used, as it is the case for a large and complex network. The issue was addressed by carrying out the exercise in reverse, that is to say by analyzing the model's ability to explain the past. GLOBAL 9th version, estimated using the 2010/2011 Parisian household travel survey has been applied on all the past household survey years (1976, 1983, 1991 and 2001). This way, estimates could be compared with survey results in terms of demand volumes, mode shares and also with past public transport counts on main railway lines.The analysis of the discrepancies between the estimates and survey results clearly shows the limits of the mobility behavior stability hypothesis. Indeed, this assumption gives the model a high inertia, which is important to keep in mind when examining and interpreting modelling results. However, the discrepancies of predicted demand flows versus observed ones stay within an acceptable range. The exercise was then a good illustration of the uncertainties associated with the modeling results.
机译：RATP运输模型GLOBAL最近更新到了第9版。这是重新考虑其方法论的机会，更广泛地来说，是重新考虑中长期计划研究的四阶段模型的相关性。实际上，通常通过复制流量计数的能力来评估模型的有效性。重要的假设是，正确复制当前内容会导致对未来的准确预测。它主要是关于移动行为稳定性的假说，这可能是有问题的，甚至在使用许多参数时（甚至在大型和复杂的网络中也是如此）甚至更是如此。通过反向进行练习（即通过分析模型解释过去的能力）解决了该问题。过去9年（1976、1983、1991和2001年）都采用了根据第2010/2011年巴黎家庭旅行调查估计的GLOBAL 9th版本。这样，就可以将需求量与需求量，方式份额以及主要铁路线路上过去的公共交通数量等方面的估算结果进行比较。对估算结果与调查结果之间差异的分析清楚地表明了出行行为稳定性的局限性假设。实际上，此假设使模型具有很高的惯性，这在检查和解释建模结果时必须牢记。但是，预计需求流量与观察到需求流量之间的差异仍在可接受的范围内。然后，该练习很好地说明了与建模结果相关的不确定性。

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