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On the asymptotic behavior of flood peak distributions

机译:洪峰分布的渐近行为

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This paper presents some analytical results and numerical illustrations onthe asymptotic properties of flood peak distributions obtained throughderived flood frequency approaches. It confirms and extends the results ofprevious works: i.e. the shape of the flood peak distributions areasymptotically controlled by the rainfall statistical properties, givenlimited and reasonable assumptions concerning the rainfall-runoff process.This result is partial so far: the impact of the rainfall spatial heterogeneity has not beenstudied for instance. From a practical point of view, it provides a general framework foranalysis of the outcomes of previous works based on derived flood frequencyapproaches and leads to some proposals for the estimation of very largereturn-period flood quantiles. This paper, focussed on asymptoticdistribution properties, does not propose any new approach for theextrapolation of flood frequency distribution to estimate intermediate returnperiod flood quantiles. Nevertheless, the large distance between frequentflood peak values and the asymptotic values as well as the simulationsconducted in this paper help quantifying the ill condition of the problem offlood frequency distribution extrapolation: it illustrates how large therange of possibilities for the shapes of flood peak distributions is.
机译:本文介绍了通过推导洪水频率方法获得的洪水峰值分布的渐近性质的一些分析结果和数值例证。它确认并扩展了先前工作的结果:即在降雨径流过程的有限和合理假设的前提下,受降雨统计特性渐渐控制的洪峰分布区域的形状。该结果到目前为止是部分的:降雨空间异质性的影响例如,尚未研究。从实践的角度来看,它为基于导出洪水频率方法的先前工作成果的分析提供了一个通用框架,并为估算非常大的洪水周期分位数提出了一些建议。本文着眼于渐近分布特性,没有提出任何新的洪水频率分布外推法来估计中间回水期洪水分位数。尽管如此,频繁洪水峰值与渐近值之间的距离较大以及本文进行的模拟仍有助于量化问题洪水频率分布外推的不良条件:它说明了洪水峰值分布形状的可能性范围有多大。

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