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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences >Detecting the long-term impacts from climate variability and increasing water consumption on runoff in the Krishna river basin (India)
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Detecting the long-term impacts from climate variability and increasing water consumption on runoff in the Krishna river basin (India)

机译：在克里希纳河流域（印度）中发现气候变化和水消耗增加对径流的长期影响

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Variations in climate, land-use and water consumption can have profoundeffects on river runoff. There is an increasing demand to study thesefactors at the regional to river basin-scale since these effects willparticularly affect water resources management at this level. This paperpresents a method that can help to differentiate between the effects ofman-made hydrological developments and climate variability (including bothnatural variability and anthropogenic climate change) at the basin scale. Weshow and explain the relation between climate, water consumption and changesin runoff for the Krishna river basin in central India. River runoffvariability due to observed climate variability and increased waterconsumption for irrigation and hydropower is simulated for the last 100years (1901–2000) using the STREAM water balance model. Annual runoff underclimate variability is shown to vary only by about 14–34 millimetres(6–15%). It appears that reservoir construction after 1960 and increasingwater consumption has caused a persistent decrease in annual river runoff ofup to approximately 123 mm (61%). Variation in runoff under climatevariability only would have decreased over the period under study, but weestimate that increasing water consumption has caused runoff variabilitythat is three times higher.
机译：气候，土地利用和水消耗的变化会对河流径流产生深远影响。人们越来越需要研究区域到流域范围内的这些因素，因为这些影响将特别影响该级别的水资源管理。本文提出了一种方法，可以帮助区分人为水文发展的影响与流域尺度上的气候变异性（包括自然变异性和人为气候变化）。我们展示并解释了印度中部克里希纳河流域的气候，耗水量与径流量变化之间的关系。使用STREAM水量平衡模型模拟了过去100年（1901-2000年）由于观测到的气候变化和灌溉和水力发电用水量增加而引起的河流径流变化。据证明，年径流在气候下的变化仅变化约14–34毫米（6–15％）。看来，1960年以后的水库建设和不断增加的用水量已导致每年的河流径流持续减少至大约123毫米（61％）。在研究期间，气候变化下的径流变化只会有所减少，但是我们估计，不断增加的用水量导致径流变化要高三倍。

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