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Assessing winter storm flow generation by means of permeability of the lithology and dominating runoff production processes

机译：通过岩性渗透性和支配径流生产过程评估冬季暴风雨的产生

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In this study two approaches are used to predict winter storm flowcoefficients in meso-scale basins (10 km2 to 1000 km2) with a viewto regionalization. The winter storm flow coefficient corresponds to the ratio between direct discharge and rainfall. It isbasin specific and supposed to give an integrated response to rainfall. Thetwo approaches, which used the permeability of the substratum and dominatingrunoff generation processes as basin attributes are compared. The study areais the Rhineland Palatinate and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and the studyfocuses on the Nahe basin and its 16 sub-basins (Rhineland Palatinate). Forthe comparison, three statistical models were derived by means of regressionanalysis. The models used the winter storm flow coefficient as the dependentvariable; the independent variables were the permeability of the substratum,preliminary derived dominating runoff generation processes and a combinationof both. It is demonstrated that the permeability and the preliminaryderived processes carry different layers of information. Cross-validationand statistical tests were used to determine and evaluate model differences.The cross-validation resulted in a best model performance for the model thatused both parameters, followed by the model that used the dominant runoffgeneration processes. From the statistical tests it was concluded that themodels come from different populations, carrying different informationlayers. Analysis of the residuals of the models indicated that thepermeability and runoff generation processes did provide complementaryinformation. Simple linear models appeared to perform well in describing thewinter storm flow coefficient at the meso-scale when a combination of thepermeability of the substratum and dominating runoff generation processesserved as independent parameters.
机译：在这项研究中，使用两种方法来预测中尺度盆地（10 km2至1000 km2）中的冬季风暴流量系数，并进行区域划分。冬季风暴流量系数对应于直接排放量与降雨量之间的比率。它是流域特定的，应该综合考虑降雨。比较了两种利用地下渗透率和支配径流生成过程作为盆地属性的方法。研究区域为莱茵兰普法尔茨州和卢森堡大公国，研究对象为纳赫盆地及其16个子盆地（莱茵兰普法尔茨州）。为了进行比较，通过回归分析得出了三个统计模型。这些模型使用冬季风暴流量系数作为因变量。自变量是地下渗透率，初步推导的主要径流产生过程以及两者的结合。结果表明，渗透率和初步推导过程携带不同的信息层。交叉验证和统计测试用于确定和评估模型差异。交叉验证使使用这两个参数的模型的模型性能最佳，其次是使用主要径流生成过程的模型。从统计检验可以得出结论，这些模型来自不同的人群，承载着不同的信息层。对模型残差的分析表明，渗透率和径流产生过程确实提供了补充信息。当将基质的渗透率和主要径流产生过程结合起来用作独立参数时，简单的线性模型似乎可以很好地描述中尺度的冬季风暴流量系数。

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