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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in Belt & Road Countries: The Role of Financial Integration

机译：``一带一路''沿线国家实际汇率失调与经济增长：金融一体化的作用

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摘要

Competitive exchange rate is an important tool for the economies to boost the exports and raise foreign exchange reserves. The strategy is handy when the countries are economically open to the world. BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) countries are financially integrated with each other through the foreign capital. This study seeks to investigate the role of financial integration in the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Belt & Road countries during 2001-2016 and 2013-2016 by applying the generalized method of moment (GMM). Using grouped and ungrouped samples; the results reveal that the real exchange rate plays a significant and positive role in economic growth. Financial integration also plays a significant and positive role in economic growth. The interaction terms of the real exchange rate and financial integration play a significant and negative role in economic growth. Moreover, several robustness checks like two-stage least squares, fixed and random effect models also confirms the results of the GMM approach. Furthermore, policy recommendation can be drawn from this study, like capital shortage can be adjusted by applying a competitive exchange rate policy.
机译：竞争性汇率是经济体促进出口和增加外汇储备的重要工具。当这些国家在经济上对世界开放时，该策略非常方便。 “一带一路”倡议国家通过外资在财务上相互融合。本研究旨在通过应用广义矩量法（GMM）来研究金融一体化在``一带一路''沿线国家2001-2016年和2013-2016年实际汇率失调与经济增长之间的关系中的作用。使用分组和未分组的样本;结果表明，实际汇率在经济增长中起着重要而积极的作用。金融一体化在经济增长中也发挥着重要而积极的作用。实际汇率和金融一体化的相互作用对经济增长起着重要而消极的作用。此外，一些稳健性检查（如两阶段最小二乘，固定效应和随机效应模型）也证实了GMM方法的结果。此外，可以从这项研究中得出政策建议，就像可以通过采用竞争性汇率政策来调整资本短缺一样。

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