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首页> 外文期刊>JMIR public health and surveillance. >Estimating the Duration of Public Concern After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station Accident From the Occurrence of Radiation Exposure-Related Terms on Twitter: A Retrospective Data Analysis
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Estimating the Duration of Public Concern After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station Accident From the Occurrence of Radiation Exposure-Related Terms on Twitter: A Retrospective Data Analysis

机译:通过Twitter上与辐射暴露相关的术语估算福岛第一核电站事故发生后公众关注的持续时间:一项回顾性数据分析

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Background: After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan on March 11, 2011, a large number of comments, both positive and negative, were posted on social media. Objective: The objective of this study was to clarify the characteristics of the trend in the number of tweets posted on Twitter, and to estimate how long public concern regarding the accident continued. We surveyed the attenuation period of the first term occurrence related to radiation exposure as a surrogate endpoint for the duration of concern. Methods: We retrieved 18,891,284 tweets from Twitter data between March 11, 2011 and March 10, 2012, containing 143 variables in Japanese. We selected radiation, radioactive, Sievert (Sv), Becquerel (Bq), and gray (Gy) as keywords to estimate the attenuation period of public concern regarding radiation exposure. These data, formatted as comma-separated values, were transferred into a Statistical Analysis System (SAS) dataset for analysis, and survival analysis methodology was followed using the SAS LIFETEST procedure. This study was approved by the institutional review board of Hokkaido University and informed consent was waived. Results: A Kaplan-Meier curve was used to show the rate of Twitter users posting a message after the accident that included one or more of the keywords. The term Sv occurred in tweets up to one year after the first tweet. Among the Twitter users studied, 75.32% (880,108/1,168,542) tweeted the word radioactive and 9.20% (107,522/1,168,542) tweeted the term Sv. The first reduction was observed within the first 7 days after March 11, 2011. The means and standard errors (SEs) of the duration from the first tweet on March 11, 2011 were 31.9 days (SE 0.096) for radioactive and 300.6 days (SE 0.181) for Sv. These keywords were still being used at the end of the study period. The mean attenuation period for radioactive was one month, and approximately one year for radiation and radiation units. The difference in mean duration between the keywords was attributed to the effect of mass media. Regularly posted messages, such as daily radiation dose reports, were relatively easy to detect from their time and formatted contents. The survival estimation indicated that public concern about the nuclear power plant accident remained after one year. Conclusions: Although the simple plot of the number of tweets did not show clear results, we estimated the mean attenuation period as approximately one month for the keyword radioactive, and found that the keywords were still being used in posts at the end of the study period. Further research is required to quantify the effect of other phrases in social media data. The results of this exploratory study should advance progress in influencing and quantifying the communication of risk.
机译:背景:2011年3月11日日本福岛第一核电站事故发生后,社交媒体上发表了大量正面和负面的评论。目的:本研究的目的是弄清Twitter上发布的推文数量趋势的特征,并估计公众对事故的关注持续了多长时间。我们调查了与辐射暴露有关的第一学期衰减的持续时间,作为关注持续时间的替代终点。方法:我们从2011年3月11日至2012年3月10日的Twitter数据中检索了18,891,284条tweet,其中包含143个日语变量。我们选择了辐射,放射性,Sievert(Sv),Becquerel(Bq)和灰色(Gy)作为关键字来估计公众对辐射暴露的关注衰减期。将这些格式为逗号分隔值的数据转移到统计分析系统(SAS)数据集中进行分析,并使用SAS LIFETEST程序跟踪生存分析方法。该研究得到北海道大学机构审查委员会的批准,并放弃了知情同意。结果:Kaplan-Meier曲线用于显示事故发生后Twitter用户发布包含一个或多个关键字的消息的比率。 Sv一词出现在第一条推文之后的一年内。在所研究的Twitter用户中,有75.32%(880,108 / 1,168,542)发了“放射性”一词,还有9.20%(107,522 / 1,168,542)发了“ Sv”一词。在2011年3月11日之后的前7天内观察到第一次减少。从2011年3月11日第一条推文开始,持续时间的平均值和标准误(SE)为放射性的31.9天(SE 0.096)和300.6天(SE Sv。0.181)。在研究期结束时,仍在使用这些关键字。放射性物质的平均衰减期为一个月,辐射和辐射单位的平均衰减期约为一年。关键字之间的平均持续时间的差异归因于大众媒体的影响。定期发布的消息(例如每日辐射剂量报告)相对容易根据其时间和格式化的内容进行检测。生存估计表明,公众对核电站事故的关注在一年后仍然存在。结论:尽管推文数量的简单图没有显示明确的结果,但我们估计该关键字放射性的平均衰减期约为1个月,并且发现该关键字在研究期末仍在帖子中使用。需要进一步研究以量化社交媒体数据中其他短语的影响。这项探索性研究的结果应促进影响和量化风险沟通的进展。

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