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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of animal and veterinary advances >Predicting the Probability of Conception in Artificially Inseminated Bovines-A Logistic Regression Analysis
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Predicting the Probability of Conception in Artificially Inseminated Bovines-A Logistic Regression Analysis

机译：预测人工授精牛受孕的可能性-Logistic回归分析

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A study was undertaken to estimate the probability of conception in artificially bred bovines, based on various animal and environmental factors, based on the data collected from 2,283 bovines (1,942 cattle and 241 buffaloes) inseminated at 30 artificial insemination centres in six districts of North-eastern agroclimatic zone of Tamil Nadu State (India). Logistic regression technique was employed to estimate the probability of a particular breedable bovine female not being able to conceive of an artificial insemination. Wald statistic obtained for the independent variables indicated that the coefficients for the variables-species, lactation order, stage of lactation, milk yield, reproductive disorders, distance to artificial insemination centre and month of insemination were all significantly different from ?0? at 1 degree of freedom. Positive values of ?R? statistic obtained for species, stage of lactation, reproductive disorder, distance to artificial insemination centre and month of insemination indicated that as these variables increase in value, the likelihood of conception increased by 7.2795, 2.7478, 2.5638, 2.7453 and 1.9778, respectively. The negative ?R? in the case of average milk yield indicated that the likelihood of conception decreased by 0.1973. Small values of ?R? for the statistically insignificant variables such as breed, farm size, land holding and lactation order indicated that these variables had got only smaller partial contributions to the model. Again, 1510 animals not conceived of AI were correctly predicted by the model not to have conceived. Similarly, 745 animals conceived were correctly predicted to have conceived. Of the animals not conceived, 98.82% were correctly classified, while of the animals conceived, 98.68% were correctly classified. Overall, 98.77% of the 2283 bovines were correctly classified to have conceivedot conceived.
机译：根据在北美洲六个地区的30个人工授精中心对2283头牛（1942头牛和241头水牛）进行人工授精所收集的数据，根据各种动物和环境因素，进行了一项研究，以评估人工繁殖牛受孕的可能性。泰米尔纳德邦（印度）的东部农业气候区。使用逻辑回归技术来估计特定可育牛种无法受精的概率。自变量的Wald统计表明，变量的系数-种类，泌乳顺序，泌乳阶段，产奶量，生殖障碍，到人工受精中心的距离和受精月份均与“ 0”有显着差异。自由度为1。 R的正值对物种，泌乳阶段，生殖障碍，到人工授精中心的距离和授精月份的统计表明，随着这些变量价值的增加，受孕的可能性分别增加了7.2795、2.7478、2.5638、2.7453和1.9778。负？R？在平均产奶量的情况下，受孕的可能性降低了0.1973。 R的小值对于统计上无关紧要的变量（例如品种，农场规模，土地所有权和泌乳顺序）表明，这些变量对模型的贡献较小。再次，模型未正确预测了1510只未设想AI的动物。同样，正确预测了745种受孕动物已受孕。在未受孕的动物中，正确分类的占98.82％，而在受孕的动物中，正确分类的占98.68％。总体而言，在2283例牛中，有98.77％被正确分类为已受孕/未受孕。

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