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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Coastal Zone Management >Household Protection against Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics in Coastal City of Makassar
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Household Protection against Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics in Coastal City of Makassar

机译：沿海城市望加锡的家庭预防登革热出血热流行

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摘要

The skill of two simple models for predicting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) epidemics in a coastal city of Makassar was evaluated. One model uses persistence while the other uses past dengue cases and climate factors to make predictions. It was shown that the skill of the models was not significantly different. The value of the prediction was also investigated when it was used for deciding whether or not to protect a household from epidemics. When the model predicts that a DHF epidemic was forthcoming, a highly effective but low-cost DEET product was applied to the whole family as protection against mosquito bites. It was found that the cost of implementing such model prediction was much cheaper than other options such as: (i) using protection without any forecast and, (ii) neglecting any protection. It was also found that the value of a forecast depends on forecast skill and the cost-to-loss ratio.
机译：评估了两个简单的模型来预测沿海城市望加锡的登革热出血热（DHF）流行情况。一种模型使用持久性，另一种使用过去的登革热病例和气候因素进行预测。结果表明，模型的技能没有显着差异。当将预测值用于确定是否要保护家庭免受流行病影响时，还对预测值进行了调查。当该模型预测即将发生DHF流行时，便将一种高效但低成本的DEET产品应用于整个家庭，以防蚊虫叮咬。发现实施这种模型预测的成本比其他选择要便宜得多，例如：（i）在没有任何预测的情况下使用保护，以及（ii）忽略任何保护。还发现预测的价值取决于预测技能和成本损失比。

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