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Extraction of market expectations from risk-neutral density

机译:从风险中性密度中提取市场预期

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate which of the proposed parametric models for extracting risk-neutral density; among Black-Scholes Merton, mixture of two log-normals and generalized beta; give the best fit. The model that fits sample data better is used to describe different characteristics (moments) of the ex ante probability distribution. The empirical findings indicate that no matter which parametric model is used, the best fit is always obtained for short maturity horizon, but when comparing models in short-run, the mixture of two log-normals gives statistically significant smaller MSE. According to the pair-wise comparison results, the basic conclusion is that the mixture of two log-normals is superior to the other parametric models and has proven to be very flexible in capturing commonly observed characteristics of the underlying financial assets, such as asymmetries and "fat-tails" in implied probability distribution.
机译:本文的目的是研究哪种拟议的参数模型可以提取风险中性密度。在Black-Scholes Merton中,两个对数正态值和广义beta的混合;最适合。更好地适合样本数据的模型用于描述事前概率分布的不同特征(时刻)。经验发现表明,无论使用哪种参数模型,总是会在较短的到期期限内获得最佳拟合,但是在短期内比较模型时,两个对数正态值的混合给出了统计上显着较小的MSE。根据成对比较的结果,基本结论是,两个对数正态的混合优于其他参数模型,并且已证明在捕获基础金融资产的通常观察到的特征(例如不对称和不对称)方面非常灵活。暗示概率分布中的“胖尾巴”。

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