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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change >Projected Rainfall Erosivity Changes under Future Climate in the Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand
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Projected Rainfall Erosivity Changes under Future Climate in the Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand

机译：泰国南楠河流域未来气候下预计的降雨侵蚀力变化

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This study aims to estimate the potential changes in rainfall erosivity under future climatic conditions in the Upper Nan watershed, Thailand. The multi-climate model and multi-emission scenario approach for the estimation of climate change impacts used in the study consists of PRECIS: ECHAM4, GFDLR-30, HadCM3 and NCAR CCSM3. The change factor or the delta change method is used as a downscaling technique to generate future precipitation. The relationship between monthly precipitation and rainfall erosivity can be used to estimate monthly rainfall erosivity under future climate. Results indicate that the average annual precipitation for all three future time slices increases from a baseline value of 1250 mm by between 2.14% (1277 mm) in 2011-2040 and 7.00% (1337 mm) in 2071-2099. Moreover, the mean of each GCM and emission scenario combination illustrates an increase in average annual rainfall erosivity for all three future time slices; from a baseline value of 5503 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1, the amount increases by between 5.02% (5779 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1) in 2011?2040 to 14.20% (6284 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1) in 2071-2099. According to RUSLE, a 1% increase in rainfall erosivity will lead to a 1% increase in soil erosion, if other factors remain constant. Therefore, soil erosion in the Upper Nan watershed is projected to be more serious in the coming decades.
机译：这项研究的目的是估计泰国上南流域未来气候条件下降雨侵蚀力的潜在变化。用于估算研究中的气候变化影响的多气候模型和多排放情景方法由PRECIS组成：ECHAM4，GFDLR-30，HadCM3和NCAR CCSM3。变化因子或增量变化法被用作降低尺度的技术，以产生未来的降水。月降水量与降雨侵蚀力之间的关系可以用来估计未来气候下的月降雨侵蚀力。结果表明，所有三个未来时间片的年平均降水量都从1250毫米的基线值增加了2011-2040年的2.14％（1277毫米）和2071-2099年的7.00％（1337毫米）。此外，每个GCM和排放情景组合的平均值说明了所有三个未来时间段的年平均降雨侵蚀力的增加;从5503 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1的基线值增加到2011年2040年的5.02％（5779 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1）至14.20％（6284 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1）在2071-2099中。根据RUSLE的说法，如果其他因素保持不变，降雨侵蚀力增加1％将导致土壤侵蚀增加1％。因此，预计在未来几十年中，南楠河上游流域的土壤侵蚀将更加严重。

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