...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change >Multi-model Climate Change Projections for Belu River Basin, Myanmarunder Representative Concentration Pathways
【24h】

Multi-model Climate Change Projections for Belu River Basin, Myanmarunder Representative Concentration Pathways

机译：代表性集中路径下缅甸贝鲁河流域的多模式气候变化预测

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Climate change impacts and adaptation related studies in Myanmar are scanty. Therefore this study aims to project future climate scenarios considering two key meteorological parameters-temperature and precipitation -in Belu River Basin in Myanmar. Multi-GCMs approach with ten different GCMs on 10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range is studied using time series data of nine meteorological stations. Quantile mapping technique is used to correct the bias in raw GCM data. Bias corrected GCM ensembles are analysed for a wide range of climate scenarios to get the complete picture of climate change pattern for 21st century. All ten GCM ensembles (four RCP scenarios) indicate that the monsoon to get wetter as well as delayed. August will witness highest amount of rainfall. More rain concentrating over shorter time span suggests likely increase in extreme precipitation events. Only a slight increase is expected on the overall annual precipitation (-1.78~+ 9.14%, range of values from four scenarios). Minimum temperature is found to increase almost twice (+0.64~+5.27C) as compared to maximum temperature (+0.56~+2.82°C) under different scenarios. Summer is the hardest hit season with May and April the most affected months for maximum and minimum temperatures respectively. These results are very useful for further research on assessment of vulnerability and adaptation on water resources and water use sectors in Belu River Basin in Myanmar.
机译：缅甸与气候变化影响和适应相关的研究很少。因此，本研究旨在通过考虑缅甸贝鲁河流域的两个关键气象参数（温度和降水）来预测未来的气候情景。利用九个气象站的时间序列数据，研究了在第10至第90个百分位数不确定范围内具有十个不同GCM的Multi-GCM方法。分位数映射技术用于校正原始GCM数据中的偏差。偏差校正后的GCM乐团针对各种气候情景进行了分析，以全面了解21世纪的气候变化模式。所有十个GCM乐团（四个RCP场景）都表明季风变得湿润和延迟。八月将是最高的降雨量。在较短的时间范围内更多的降雨集中表明极端降水事件可能增加。预计全年总降水量仅略有增加（-1.78〜+ 9.14％，四种情况下的数值范围）。在不同情况下，最低温度比最高温度（+ 0.56〜+ 2.82°C）升高了近两倍（+ 0.64〜+ 5.27C）。夏季是受灾最严重的季节，5月和4月分别是最高和最低温度受影响最大的月份。这些结果对于进一步评估缅甸贝鲁河流域水资源和用水部门的脆弱性和适应性研究非常有用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号