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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development >Macroeconomics Relations between Exchange Rate Instability, Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and Economic Growth Variables: The Case of Pakistan
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Macroeconomics Relations between Exchange Rate Instability, Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and Economic Growth Variables: The Case of Pakistan

机译：汇率不稳定，汇率波动，贸易与经济增长变量之间的宏观经济学关系：以巴基斯坦为例

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This paper aims to determine whether Exchange Rate instability of Pakistan, affects it’s imports , Exports, Trade Balances, Foreign Exchange Reserves and GDP of Pakistan or not, and if so then in what direction. We have used pooled data from 1952 to 2010 (on annual basis), indirect exchange rate quotations (Dollars per Rupee) are used. We have estimated our equation by running each variable at lag 3, Estimated equation of explanatory variables (Exchange Rate, imports, Exports, Foreign Reserves) for explained variable (GDP) exhibits a significant relationship, which is highly sensitive. A change 1 basis point in exchange rate can result in thousand of USD change in GDP. The depreciation of exchange rate has a positive impact on the exports, but sudden and abrupt fluctuation in exchange rates can disturb economic growth. We have used: Correlation Removal methods, Multi-collinerity Detection and Removal Tests, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Auto correlation Detection and Removal Tests, in-order to make our model and it’s variable, a “good predictor” for determining the Trade Balances of Pakistan, significant enough, for future predictions about GDP. Keywords: Exchange rate instability-Volatility, Trade, Imports, Exports, Economic Growth, Reserves Money, Auto-Correlation Detection & Removal Test, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Multi-Collinerity.
机译：本文旨在确定巴基斯坦的汇率不稳定因素是否会影响巴基斯坦的进口，出口，贸易余额，外汇储备和巴基斯坦的GDP，如果影响，那么会朝哪个方向发展。我们使用了1952年至2010年（每年）的汇总数据，并使用了间接汇率报价（美元/卢比）。我们通过在滞后3处运行每个变量来估算方程，解释变量（GDP）的解释变量（汇率，进口，出口，外汇储备）的估计公式显示出显着的关系，这是高度敏感的。汇率变动1个基点会导致GDP产生千美元的变化。汇率贬值对出口有积极影响，但汇率突然而突然的波动会干扰经济增长。我们使用了：相关去除方法，多色差检测和去除测试，稳定性测试，格兰杰因果关系测试，自动相关检测和去除测试，以便创建模型及其变量，这是确定交易的“良好预测指标”巴基斯坦的余额足够重要，可用于未来对GDP的预测。关键字：汇率不稳定性-波动性，贸易，进口，出口，经济增长，储备货币，自相关检测和去除测试，稳定性测试，格兰杰因果关系测试，多协整性。

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