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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Environmental Science and Technology >Three Days Ahead Prediction of Daily 12 Hour Ozone (O3) Concentrations for Urban Area in Malaysia
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Three Days Ahead Prediction of Daily 12 Hour Ozone (O3) Concentrations for Urban Area in Malaysia

机译：马来西亚城市地区未来12天每日12小时臭氧（O 3 ）浓度的预测

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摘要

Ground-level ozone (O3) is a secondary pollutant and has an adverse effect on human health, agriculture and ecosystems. The aim of this study is to develop model and to predict future O3 concentrations level in Shah Alam for next day (D+1), next two days (D+2) and next three days (D+3) using traditional method of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) based on the concept of Ordinary Least Square estimate (OLS). This study uses daily average data of air pollutants (O3, NOx, NO, SO2, NO2, CO) and meteorological variables (WS, T, RH) that was selected from 2002 until 2013 as independent variables. The performance indicator of the models are measured by accuracy measures (Prediction accuracy, Index agreement and Coefficient of determination) and error measures (Root mean square error, Normalized absolute value). The average accuracy measures (AI, PA and R2) show that the prediction for D+1, D+2 and D+3 is 0.4492, 0.3797 and 0.304 respectively. Meanwhile, the average error measures (RMSE, NAE) show that the prediction for D+1, D+2 and D+3 is 0.1453, 0.1374 and 0.1302, respectively.
机译：地面臭氧（O 3 ）是次要污染物，对人类健康，农业和生态系统产生不利影响。这项研究的目的是开发模型并预测Shah Alam的第二天（D + 1），接下来的两天（D + 2）和接下来的三天（D）的未来O 3 浓度水平+3）使用基于普通最小二乘估计（OLS）概念的传统多元线性回归（MLR）方法。本研究使用空气污染物（O 3 ，NO x ，NO，SO 2， NO 2 ，CO）和气象变量（WS，T，RH），这些变量自2002年至2013年被选为自变量。模型的性能指标通过准确性度量（预测准确性，索引一致性和确定系数）和误差度量（均方根误差，归一化绝对值）进行度量。平均精度测度（AI，PA和R 2 ）表明D + 1，D + 2和D + 3的预测分别为0.4492、0.3797和0.304。同时，平均误差度量（RMSE，NAE）表明，对D + 1，D + 2和D + 3的预测分别为0.1453、0.1374和0.1302。

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