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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education >A Holistic Approach to Guide Development of Future Climate Scenarios for Water Resource Applications
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A Holistic Approach to Guide Development of Future Climate Scenarios for Water Resource Applications

机译：整体方法指导水资源应用中未来气候情景的发展

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Water resource managers in governmental agencies and other organizations are increasingly focused on preparation of climate-related vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation assessments. These climate-related assessments require information on future climate, particularly possible changes to precipitation and temperature. To meet this need for future climate information, many managers will look to global climate models (GCMs) as a primary data source. Yet, a major limiting factor has been the resolution mismatch between coarse predictions from present-day GCMs and what is often needed for hydrologic applications and water resource management.The scale mismatch between GCMs and water manager needs has been the focus of extensive discussion in the scientific literature (e.g., Varis et al. 2004; Diaz-Nieto and Wilby 2005; Wilby and Harris 2006; Buytaert et al. 2010). Numerous downscaling techniques (e.g., spatial and temporal analogues, statistical downscaling, regional climate models) are available to address this scale mismatch, with the techniques varying in terms of their skill, complexity, and computational demand (e.g., Mearns et al. 2003; Wilby et al. 2004). Many guidance documents have been prepared to address the scientific aspects of downscaling (Mearns et al. 2003; Lu 2006; Carter 2007; Lu 2007; Knutti et al. 2010). Less attention has been paid to understanding how non-scientific constraints to climate scenario development impact downscaling technique selection. This issue was highlighted in a recent United Nations Development Programme guidebook (Puma and Gold 2011), which argues that financial, computing, time, and workforce constraints should be considered jointly with scientific limitations in order to develop climate scenarios that meet end-user needs.Water resource managers need a holistic framework that allows them to recognize and account for the interconnectedness of scientific and non-scientific constraints associated with climate scenario development. Building on the work of Puma and Gold (2011), this study introduces a holistic framework to guide water resource managers through the process of climate scenario development. This framework will assist these managers as they work to balance their agency's available resources with their climate scenario needs and scientific downscaling constraints.
机译：政府机构和其他组织中的水资源管理者越来越关注于与气候相关的脆弱性，适应性和减缓评估的准备工作。这些与气候有关的评估需要有关未来气候的信息，尤其是降水和温度可能发生的变化。为了满足对未来气候信息的需求，许多管理人员将把全球气候模型（GCM）作为主要数据源。然而，一个主要的限制因素是当今GCM的粗略预测与水文应用和水资源管理通常需要的分辨率之间的分辨率不匹配.GCM和水资源管理者需求之间的规模不匹配一直是该领域广泛讨论的焦点。科学文献（例如Varis等，2004; Diaz-Nieto和Wilby，2005; Wilby和Harris，2006; Buytaert等，2010）。有许多降尺度技术（例如空间和时间类似物，统计降尺度，区域气候模型）可用于解决这种规模失衡问题，但这些技术的技巧，复杂性和计算需求各不相同（例如Mearns等人，2003; Wilby等，2004）。已经准备了许多指导性文件来解决降尺度的科学问题（Mearns等，2003; Lu 2006; Carter，2007; Lu 2007; Knutti等，2010）。人们很少关注了解气候情景发展的非科学约束如何影响降尺度技术的选择。联合国开发计划署最近的指南（Puma和Gold，2011年）强调了这个问题，该指南认为，应结合科学的局限性考虑财务，计算，时间和劳动力方面的限制，以便开发出满足最终用户需求的气候方案。水资源管理者需要一个整体框架，使他们能够认识和说明与气候情景发展相关的科学和非科学约束的相互联系。在Puma和Gold（2011）的工作的基础上，本研究引入了一个整体框架来指导水资源管理者完成气候情景开发过程。该框架将在这些经理们努力平衡其机构的可用资源与他们的气候情景需求和科学缩减规模约束之间提供帮助。

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