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Evaluation of Failure Probability of Ships on the Baltic Sea by Means of Simulation Model and Statistical Data

机译:基于仿真模型和统计数据的波罗的海船舶失效概率评估

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The ship technical failures contribution in overall number of navigational accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by human factor but in safety analysis they cannot be neglected. The paper presents stochastic modeling the technical failures of ships with respect of most important ship systems such as main engine, power generators and steering gear. The data for simulation was obtained from analysis of ships statistical data of polish owners. Obtained results could be useful for estimation of transport loses or potential environmental threats and planning the response action against them.
机译:船舶技术故障在航行事故总数中的贡献明显小于人为因素造成的事故,但是在安全分析中不能忽略。本文对船舶的技术故障进行了随机建模,这些技术故障涉及最重要的船舶系统,例如主机,发电机和舵机。模拟数据是从波兰船东的船舶统计数据分析中获得的。获得的结果可能有助于估计运输损失或潜在的环境威胁,并计划针对这些损失的应对措施。

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