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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of KONBiN >Risk analysis in case of fire on PZL BRYZA using the event tree analysis / Analiza ryzyka w przypadku po??aru samolotu PZL BRYZA z wykorzystaniem metody drzewa zdarze??
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Risk analysis in case of fire on PZL BRYZA using the event tree analysis / Analiza ryzyka w przypadku po??aru samolotu PZL BRYZA z wykorzystaniem metody drzewa zdarze??

机译：使用事件树分析法对PZL BRYZA发生火灾的风险进行分析/使用事件树法对PZL BRYZA发生火灾的风险进行分析？

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摘要

The paper presents application of the Event Tree Analysis method for analyzing risk in complex situations. A model associated with the occurrence of fire on PZL Bryza was developed using the aircraft flight manual. The probabilities of events caused by the initiating event and the losses caused by each of the highlighted final undesirable events were determined. Statistical data for flight safety was used to calculate probability of the initiating event. The risk was determined as the probability that losses of at least given category will occur during one flight. As a result of the conducted analysis it was found that the probability of in-flight fire is very small. However, in such a case, the probability of death of one or more passengers is relatively high.
机译：本文介绍了事件树分析方法在分析复杂情况下的风险中的应用。使用飞机飞行手册，开发了与PZL Bryza着火相关的模型。确定了由启动事件引起的事件的概率以及由每个突出显示的最终不良事件导致的损失。使用飞行安全性的统计数据来计算启动事件的概率。风险被确定为在一次飞行中发生至少给定类别的损失的概率。进行分析的结果发现，空中着火的可能性很小。但是，在这种情况下，一个或多个乘客死亡的可能性相对较高。

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