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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Integrated Pest Management >Indifference Analysis: A Practical Method to Assess Uncertainty in IPM Decision Making
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Indifference Analysis: A Practical Method to Assess Uncertainty in IPM Decision Making

机译：无差异分析：评估IPM决策不确定性的实用方法

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id="p-2">Since the publication of the integrated control concept (xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9"Stern et al. 1959/xref), integrated pest management (IPM) has been based upon the principle of rational decision making with knowledge of plant-pest interactions and economic tradeoffs. In addition, although the determination of economic-injury levels and other decision benchmarks have been extraordinarily helpful with the application of IPM principles, they often are fixed, when, in fact, the situation-specific circumstances require a more dynamic approach. Moreover, in situations for which preventive control measures are preferred or required, there has been little guidance for decision makers on how to quantify payoffs to their control options. This paper introduces an approach referred to as indifference analysis, a simple and straightforward practitioner approach to support decision making in IPM programs when outcomes are unknown. The concept is based upon a basic 2 × 2 payoff matrix of prospective financial outcomes for pest management decisions taken with uncertain outcomes. Two case studies are presented to illustrate the use of indifference analysis. For each case, an indifference point is determined that provides transparency regarding the relative financial risk of various management options, leading to insights for selecting tactics under uncertainty. This approach may enlighten decision makers in choosing their IPM practices when outcomes are unknown and uncertain.
机译：id =“ p-2”>自从综合防治概念（ Stern等人1959 ）发布以来，虫害综合治理（IPM ）是基于合理决策的原则，并具有对植物与害虫之间的相互作用和经济权衡的知识。此外，尽管确定经济伤害水平和其他决策基准对于IPM原则的应用非常有帮助，但它们通常是固定的，而实际上，针对特定情况的情况则需要采用更动态的方法。此外，在需要或需要预防控制措施的情况下，对于决策者如何量化其控制方案的收益几乎没有指导。本文介绍了一种称为无差异分析的方法，这是一种简单而直接的从业人员方法，用于在结果未知时支持IPM计划中的决策。该概念基于具有不确定结果的有害生物管理决策的预期财务结果的基本2×2回报矩阵。提出了两个案例研究，以说明无差异分析的使用。对于每种情况，都将确定一个无差异点，以提供有关各种管理选项的相对财务风险的透明度，从而为在不确定情况下选择策略提供见识。当结果未知和不确定时，这种方法可以启发决策者选择IPM做法。

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