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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Northwest Atlantic Fishery Science >Estimation of Pup Production of Hooded and Harp Seals in the Greenland Sea in 2007: Reducing Uncertainty Using Generalized Additive Models
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Estimation of Pup Production of Hooded and Harp Seals in the Greenland Sea in 2007: Reducing Uncertainty Using Generalized Additive Models

机译：2007年格陵兰海的带帽和竖琴海豹幼崽产量估算：使用广义加性模型减少不确定性

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The pup production of the Greenland Sea populations of hooded and harp seals were assessed in aerial surveys using two aircrafts for reconnaissance flights and photographic surveys along transects over the whelping areas from 14 March to 3 April 2007. One helicopter, operated from the applied expedition vessel, flew reconnaissance flights, monitored the distribution of seal patches and performed age-staging of the pups. The total estimate of hooded seal pup production was 16 140 (SE = 2 140, CV = 13.3%), which is similar to an estimate obtained for comparable surveys in 2005. The total pup production estimate obtained for harp seals was 110 530 (SE = 27 680, CV = 25.0%), which is slightly higher than an estimate obtained for a similar survey in 2002. The pup production and the uncertainty of the pup production estimate were estimated using a standard method for analyzing this type of survey data and a recently developed method that utilized Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Using the two estimation methods on data from all three surveys (2002, 2005, 2007), comparable estimates of pup production were obtained. In scenarios where pups were clustered, the estimated uncertainty of the pup production estimate was much lower for the GAM method than for the conventional method. This resulted in a considerable reduction of the estimated coefficient of variation. In scenarios where pups were uniformly distributed, both methods performed the same.
机译：2007年3月14日至4月3日，在空中勘测中使用两架飞机进行侦察飞行，并对沿雏地区的横断面进行摄影勘测，评估了格陵兰海带帽和竖琴海豹种群的幼仔产量。 ，进行侦察飞行，监测海豹斑块的分布并进行幼崽的年龄分期。带帽海豹幼崽总产量估计为16 140（SE = 2 140，CV = 13.3％），与2005年可比调查获得的估计值相似。竖琴海豹幼崽总产量估计为110 530（SE = 27680，CV = 25.0％），略高于2002年类似调查的估算值。使用标准方法来分析此类调查数据，从而估算了仔猪的产量和仔猪产量估计的不确定性，最近开发的一种利用通用加法模型（GAM）的方法。使用对所有三个调查（2002年，2005年，2007年）的数据的两种估算方法，可以获得可比的幼崽产量估算。在幼崽聚集的情况下，GAM方法的幼崽生产估计的估计不确定性比传统方法低得多。这导致估计的变异系数大大降低。在幼崽均匀分布的情况下，两种方法都执行相同的操作。

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