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Interannual variability and predictability of summertime significant wave heights in the western north pacific

机译：北太平洋西部夏季夏季重要波高的年际变化和可预测性

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摘要

We propose and validate a linear regression model which enables us to predict the summer (June–August) mean of the monthly 90th percentile of significant wave heights (H90) in the western North Pacific (WNP). The most prevailing interannual variability of H90 is identified by applying an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to H90 obtained from the ERA-40 wave reanalysis as well as from the optimally interpolated TOPEX/Poseidon (OITP) wave data. It is found that the increase of H90 is correlated with cyclonic circulation in the WNP which links with warm SST anomalies in the Ni?o-3.4 region. We adopt zonal wind anomaly averaged over the region 5°N–15°N, 130°E–160°E (U10N) as a predictor of the first principal component (PC1) of H90, since U10N is closely correlated with the PC1 of H90. It is revealed that regression models obtained from two different wave datasets are nearly identical. The predictability of the regression model is assessed in terms of the reduction of the root-mean-square (rms) errors between H90 and the reconstructed data. The predictor is found to be successful in reducing the rms errors by up to 40% for the ERA-40 wave reanalysis and by up to 70% for the OITP wave data within the latitudinal band 10°N–25°N, though rms errors exceeding 0.3 m still remain, particularly in the East China Sea.
机译：我们提出并验证了线性回归模型，该模型使我们能够预测北太平洋西部（WNP）的重要波高（H90）月度第90个百分位数的夏季（6月至8月）平均值。通过对ERA-40波再分析以及最佳内插的TOPEX / Poseidon（OITP）波数据获得的H90进行经验正交函数分析，可以确定H90最主要的年际变化。结果发现，H90的增加与WNP中的气旋循环有关，后者与Ni？o-3.4区域的暖SST异常有关。我们采用在5°N–15°N，130°E–160°E（U10N）区域平均的纬向风异常作为H90的第一主分量（PC1）的预测因子，因为U10N与H90的PC1紧密相关。 H90。结果表明，从两个不同的波浪数据集获得的回归模型几乎相同。回归模型的可预测性是根据H90与重建数据之间的均方根（rms）误差的减少进行评估的。发现该预测因子可以成功地将ERA-40波再分析的均方根误差降低40％，将纬度10°N–25°N范围内的OITP波数据降低70％，尽管均方根误差仍然超过0.3 m，特别是在东海。

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