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Evaluation of Mortagage Value of Forestry Assets Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation

机译：基于蒙特卡洛模拟的林业资产抵押价值评估

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摘要

Using the traditional Income approach to determine the mortgage value of middle aged trees is actually a kind of market value, and its valuation results are point estimates, all parameters are deterministic parameters, but there are many uncertainties in the mortgage behavior of forest resources. The method of Monte Carlo simulation considered the Liquidation risk and the uncertainty of forest assets management factors, and the resulting valuation results is interval estimation. Taking real mortgage evaluation as an example, this paper discusses the uncertainty of the mortgage loan of forest assets and obtains the interval estimate of the mortgage value, and finally, the evaluation results are compared and analyzed.
机译：用传统的收益法确定中年树木的抵押价值实际上是一种市场价值，其估值结果为点估计，所有参数均为确定性参数，但森林资源抵押行为存在很多不确定性。蒙特卡罗模拟方法考虑了清算风险和森林资产经营因素的不确定性，得出的估值结果为区间估计。以真实抵押评估为例，讨论森林资产抵押贷款的不确定性，获得抵押价值的区间估计，最后对评估结果进行比较分析。

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