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The Construction and Simulation of the Basic Model of Performance Risk Early Warning and Alarm Based on the System Dynamics Method: Invoking the Theory of Interfacial Tension

机译:基于系统动力学方法的绩效风险预警预警基本模型的构建与仿真:基于界面张力理论

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Excellent performance sustainability in mature enterprises in traditional industries, is always concerned. How to describe and analyze the key support of business continuity from the perspective of performance risk, has always been an important topic to scholars and managers in this field. Based on the strategic intrapreneur-ship and the functional human resource management(HRM) embedding and coupling each other, this paper fo-cused on the interface of intrapreneurship-HRM, invoked interfacial tension theory in physics, and established the causality diagram of performance risk. With putting the methodology of System Dynamics to use, this paper followed its paradigm, and used the Vensim PLE software, so as to build a System Dynamics flow diagram of performance risk, and thus tried to infer abstractly the basic model of the performance risk early warning and alarm. At last, it selected "Laobaigan Liquor", a publicly listed company and a famous "China Time-honored Brands", to conduct the simulation research. The results show that, the investment in customer preferences re-search is not only the key variable to affect the strength of the performance risk early warning and alarm, and the growth rate of annual net profit, but also an important way for the front-line practitioners to realize the ma-ture period update and the recession period delay.
机译:在传统行业中,成熟企业的卓越绩效可持续性一直备受关注。如何从绩效风险的角度描述和分析业务连续性的关键支持,一直是该领域学者和管理者的重要课题。本文基于战略内创业与功能性人力资源管理(HRM)相互嵌入和耦合的基础上,重点研究了企业内创业-HRM的接口,在物理中引入界面张力理论,建立了绩效风险因果关系图。 。通过使用系统动力学的方法论,本文遵循其范式,并使用Vensim PLE软件,以构建性能风险的系统动力学流程图,从而尝试早期抽象地推断性能风险的基本模型警告和警报。最后,它选择了一家上市公司“老白干酒”和一个著名的“中国老字号”来进行模拟研究。结果表明,对顾客偏好研究的投入不仅是影响绩效风险预警和预警强度,影响年净利润增长率的关键变量,而且是应对风险的重要途径。线从业者实现了成熟期的更新和衰退期的延迟。

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