...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Residuals Science & Technology >Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model and Effect on the Power System Frequency
【24h】

Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model and Effect on the Power System Frequency

机译：超短期风电功率预测模型的误差分析及其对电力系统频率的影响

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Objective: the forecasting error analysis of wind power is the preparation of power system optimization scheduling for large scale wind power access, which can improve the security and economy of the system operation. Methods: in this paper, we use a piecewise exponential distribution model to predict the ultra short term wind power error and then estimate the parameters. Process: the case we used is from Northern Ireland, we forecast the probability and precision of wind power on the basis of Normal distribution model, Laplace distribution model, Cauchy distribution model, Beta distribution model and the proposed piecewise exponential distribution model, and study its effect on the frequency of power system. Conclusion: the prediction error distribution model of the sub index wind power forecasting error can be used to mine the relative information of the actual error distribution, in addition, it’s convenient to implement and easy to be used in calculus, it can be applied to describe the error distribution of the multiple time scale prediction, so it has more advantages in the error analysis.
机译：目的：对风电的预测误差进行分析，为大规模风电接入制定电力系统优化调度，可以提高系统运行的安全性和经济性。方法：在本文中，我们使用分段指数分布模型预测超短期风电误差，然后估计参数。流程：我们使用的案例来自北爱尔兰，我们在正态分布模型，拉普拉斯分布模型，柯西分布模型，Beta分布模型和拟议的分段指数分布模型的基础上预测风能的概率和精度，并对其进行研究对电力系统频率的影响。结论：子指标风电预测误差的预测误差分布模型可用于挖掘实际误差分布的相对信息，此外，它实现方便，易于在演算中使用，可用于描述多时标预测的误差分布，在误差分析中具有更多的优势。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号