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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Shipping and Trade >Forecasting port-level demand for LNG as a ship fuel: the case of the port of Antwerp
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Forecasting port-level demand for LNG as a ship fuel: the case of the port of Antwerp

机译：预测港口对船用液化天然气的需求：以安特卫普港口为例

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From a European, regional and local perspective, as well as from the point of view of port authorities, it is important that waterborne transport should be sustainable. In this context, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is often put forward as a viable alternative fuel for deep-sea, shortsea and inland navigation. The present paper develops a forecasting method for determining potential LNG bunker volumes at port level. The proposed method is based on a review of the literature, historical data on technological innovation in shipping (i.e. the transitions from sail to steam and marine diesel engines), expert opinions and present-day bunker volumes. The forecast obtained was subsequently validated by shipping companies, bunker companies and fuel suppliers operating in the port of Antwerp. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of a number of relevant independent variables on the forecast. Overall, it is found that switching to LNG as a ship fuel, like any innovation, exhibits a slow adoption pattern, with sluggish growth initially but picking up some speed with time. At the same time, there is evidence of a chicken-and-egg dilemma, with shipping companies unwilling to invest in LNG-powered ships as long as supply is insufficient or uncertain, and fuel suppliers not willing to provide storage and bunker facilities as long as demand is low. Our analysis points at many uncertainties, which are used as discriminating factors between the different scenarios tested. However, whichever scenario is played out, the indications are that LNG bunkering volumes in Antwerp will not increase sharply between now and 2050. The volume growth under the strong development scenario is about four times greater than that under the weak development scenario, but remains modest.
机译：从欧洲，区域和地方的角度，以及从港口当局的角度来看，水路运输应具有可持续性，这一点很重要。在这种情况下，通常提出液化天然气（LNG）作为深海，近海和内陆航行的可行替代燃料。本文开发了一种预测方法，用于确定港口级别的潜在LNG燃料仓量。所提出的方法是基于对文献的回顾，有关航运技术创新的历史数据（即从帆到蒸汽和船用柴油机的过渡），专家意见和当今的燃油量。随后获得的预测得到了在安特卫普港运营的船运公司，加油公司和燃料供应商的验证。此外，进行了敏感性分析，以评估许多相关自变量对预测的影响。总体而言，发现与任何创新一样，改用液化天然气作为船舶燃料的采用模式缓慢，起初增长缓慢，但随着时间的推移有所提高。同时，有证据表明存在鸡与蛋的困境，只要供应不足或不确定，船运公司就不愿投资以液化天然气为动力的船，而燃料供应商则不愿提供仓储和加油设施因为需求低。我们的分析指出了许多不确定因素，这些不确定因素被用作区分不同测试场景的因素。但是，无论哪种情况发生，都表明从现在到2050年，安特卫普的LNG燃料加注量不会急剧增加。在强劲的发展情况下，量的增长大约是在疲软的发展情况下的四倍，但仍保持适度。

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