...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Sustainable Development >The Effects of Tajikistan’s Accession to the Common Economic Space of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia on Its Agricultural Sector Under Official and Depreciated Exchange Rates
【24h】

The Effects of Tajikistan’s Accession to the Common Economic Space of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia on Its Agricultural Sector Under Official and Depreciated Exchange Rates

机译：塔吉克斯坦加入白俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯共同经济空间对官方汇率和贬值汇率下农业部门的影响

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Tajikistan is planning to join the Common Economic Space (CES) of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia in order to benefit from free movement of capital, goods, especially the labour force. Labour migrants abroad are equivalent to 15 percent of country’s population, 28 percent of the labour force, and 50 percent economically active population. Migrant remittances in Tajikistan are the main drivers of economic growth that induces currency appreciation. This paper, using a Partial Equilibrium Model, assesses the effects of Tajikistan’s accession to the CES on the country’s agricultural sector at official and depreciated (experimental) exchange rates. The latter enables testing the Marshall-Lerner Condition (MLC) and are calling to emphasize the cost of remittances-induced currency appreciation to producer, consumer, state budget, agricultural value added and balance of trade. The overall welfare effects of CES accession on the agricultural sector are positive under both exchange rates. Producer and overall gain at depreciated exchange rate exceeds the gain at official exchange rate by 34 percent, while consumers gain almost 2.9 times less under depreciated exchange rate. Budget losses are 15 percent less at depreciated exchange rate rather than the official one. Producer and consumer gains, under both exchange rates, prevail over budget losses, therefore an overall gain will be ensured. The value of agricultural production in scenario, ceteris paribus, almost two times less at official exchange?rate (14 percent) than under the depreciated one (27 percent). Furthermore, the deterioration balance of trade is smaller at depreciated exchange rate, thus, the MLC is met.
机译：塔吉克斯坦计划加入白俄罗斯，哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯的共同经济空间（CES），以便从资本，货物，特别是劳动力的自由流动中受益。国外的劳务移民相当于该国人口的15％，劳动力的28％和从事经济活动的人口占50％。塔吉克斯坦的移民汇款是导致货币升值的经济增长的主要驱动力。本文使用部分均衡模型，以官方和贬值（实验）汇率评估了塔吉克斯坦加入CES对该国农业部门的影响。后者可以测试Marshall-Lerner条件（MLC），并呼吁强调汇款导致的货币升值对生产者，消费者，国家预算，农业增加值和贸易平衡的影响。在两种汇率下，加入CES的总体福利对农业部门的影响都是积极的。按折旧汇率计算的生产者和整体收益比按官方汇率计算的收益高出34％，而按折旧汇率计算的消费者收益几乎减少了2.9倍。按折旧汇率计算，预算损失比官方损失少15％。在两种汇率下，生产者和消费者的收益均高于预算损失，因此将确保总体收益。假设汇率不变，农业生产的价值等于小额汇率（14％），比折旧汇率下的农业价格（27％）低近两倍。此外，在贬值的汇率下，贸易的恶化余额较小，因此可以满足MLC的要求。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号