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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine >The cuts and poor health: when and how can we say that one thing causes another?
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The cuts and poor health: when and how can we say that one thing causes another?

机译：割伤和不良健康：我们何时，如何说一件事情导致另一件事？

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摘要

Life expectancy in England and Wales has stalled. At some older ages, it is declining. One of the most widely used measures of the health of the population, life expectancy is calculated from age-specific death rates. Life expectancy at birth in high-income coun- tries has been improving steadily, albeit with some small fluctuations, for decades. If the data are accur- ate, in the absence of other causative factors — ende- mic disease, environmental event such as war or natural disaster, or mass migration — stagnation of life expectancy, or worse still, decline, suggests sub- stantial societal problems. This possibility is not, however, supported by the Government, which rejects any suggestion that its policies, in particular austerity and its effects, might have played any causal role in the observed trends.
机译：英格兰和威尔士的预期寿命已经停止。在某些老年人中，它正在下降。预期寿命是衡量人群健康状况的最广泛使用的方法之一，它是根据特定年龄段的死亡率计算出来的。几十年来，尽管有一些小波动，高收入国家的出生时预期寿命一直在稳步提高。如果数据是准确的，则在没有其他致病因素（如流行病，战争或自然灾害等环境事件或大规模迁徙）的情况下，预期寿命停滞，甚至更糟的是下降，表明存在实质性社会问题。但是，这种可能性并没有得到政府的支持，政府拒绝任何关于其政策，特别是紧缩政策及其影响可能在观察到的趋势中起因果作用的建议。

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