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Transient Uncertainty Analysis in Solar Thermal System Modeling

机译:太阳热系统建模中的暂态不确定性分析

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Complex, dynamic, computational models are routinely used to evaluate and optimize the design and performance of solar thermal systems. As models become more complex, performing uncertainty analysis on such models can be quite challenging and computationally expensive. This paper presents an effective approach to quantify uncertainties associated with transient simulation results from a dynamic solar thermal energy system model with uncertain parameters. The proposed method utilizes the concept of impulse response and convolution process to estimate the sensitivities to time-varying external inputs. Using this method, the number of simulations required to propagate uncertainties through dynamic models can be significantly reduced. An example is presented throughout the paper to demonstrate the procedure of the proposed uncertainty analysis approach.
机译:通常使用复杂的动态计算模型来评估和优化太阳能热系统的设计和性能。随着模型变得越来越复杂,对此类模型执行不确定性分析可能会非常具有挑战性且计算量很大。本文提出了一种有效的方法,用于量化参数不确定的动态太阳能热能系统模型与瞬态仿真结果相关的不确定性。所提出的方法利用了脉冲响应和卷积过程的概念来估计对时变外部输入的敏感度。使用这种方法,可以大大减少通过动态模型传播不确定性所需的仿真次数。在整个论文中提供了一个示例,以说明所提出的不确定性分析方法的过程。

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