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首页> 外文期刊>British Journal of Cancer >An evaluation of the prognostic model PREDICT using the POSH cohort of women aged ?40 years at breast cancer diagnosis
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An evaluation of the prognostic model PREDICT using the POSH cohort of women aged ?40 years at breast cancer diagnosis

机译：使用POSH队列对年龄≥40岁的女性进行乳腺癌诊断的预后模型评估

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Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in younger women (aged ?40 years) in the United Kingdom. PREDICT ( http://www.predict.nhs.uk ) is an online prognostic tool developed to help determine the best available treatment and outcome for early breast cancer. This study was conducted to establish how well PREDICT performs in estimating survival in a large cohort of younger women recruited to the UK POSH study. Methods: The POSH cohort includes data from 3000 women aged ?40 years at breast cancer diagnosis. Study end points were overall and breast cancer-specific survival at 5, 8, and 10 years. Evaluation of PREDICT included model discrimination and comparison of the number of predicted versus observed events. Results: PREDICT provided accurate long-term (8- and 10-year) survival estimates for younger women. Five-year estimates were less accurate, with the tool overestimating survival by 25% overall, and by 56% for patients with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumours. PREDICT underestimated survival at 5 years among patients with ER-negative tumours. Conclusions: PREDICT is a useful tool for providing reliable long-term (10-year) survival estimates for younger patients. However, for more accurate short-term estimates, the model requires further calibration using more data from young onset cases. Short-term prediction may be most relevant for the increasing number of women considering risk-reducing bilateral mastectomy.
机译：背景：乳腺癌是英国年轻女性（40岁以下）中最常见的癌症。 PREDICT（http://www.predict.nhs.uk）是一种在线预后工具，旨在帮助确定早期乳腺癌的最佳可用治疗方法和结果。进行这项研究是为了确定PREDICT在估计参加英国POSH研究的一大批年轻女性的生存率方面的表现。方法：POSH队列包括来自3000名≥40岁乳腺癌诊断妇女的数据。研究终点为5年，8年和10年的总体生存率和乳腺癌特异性生存率。对PREDICT的评估包括模型判别和比较预测事件与观察事件的数量。结果：PREDICT为年轻女性提供了准确的长期（8年和10年）存活率估计。五年评估的准确性较差，该工具高估了整体生存率25％，而雌激素受体（ER）阳性肿瘤患者高估了56％。 PREDICT低估了ER阴性肿瘤患者的5年生存率。结论：PREDICT是一个有用的工具，可为年轻患者提供可靠的长期（10年）存活率估计。但是，为了获得更准确的短期估​​计，该模型需要使用更多来自年轻发病病例的数据进行进一步校准。短期预测可能与考虑降低风险的双侧乳房切除术的女性人数增加最相关。

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