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Study of surveillance data for class B notifiable disease in China from 2005 to 2014

机译：2005-2014年中国乙类法定传染病监测数据研究

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Background: The surveillance of infection is very important for public health management and disease control. It has been 10 years since China implemented its new web-based infection surveillance system, which covers the largest population in the world. Methods: In this study, time series data were collected for 28 infectious diseases reported from 2005 to 2014 . Seasonality and long-term trends were explored using decomposition methods. Seasonality was expressed by calculating the seasonal indices. Long-term trends in the diseases were assessed using a linear regression model on the deseasonalized series. Results: During the 10-year period, 38 982 567 cases and 126 372 deaths were reported in the system. The proportion of deaths caused by AIDS increased from 12% in 2005 to 78% in 2014. There were six diseases for which the seasonal index range was greater than 2: dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis, anthrax, cerebrospinal meningitis, and measles . Among the 28 diseases, the incidence of syphilis increased fastest, with an average increase of 0.018626/100 000 every month after adjustment for seasonality. Conclusions: Effective surveillance is helpful in gaining a better understanding of the infection behaviour of infectious diseases; this will greatly facilitate disease control and management.
机译：背景：感染的监测对于公共卫生管理和疾病控制非常重要。中国实施新的基于网络的感染监测系统已有10年了，该系统覆盖了世界上最大的人口。方法：本研究收集了2005年至2014年报告的28种传染病的时间序列数据。使用分解方法探索季节性和长期趋势。季节性是通过计算季节指数来表示的。使用反季节序列上的线性回归模型评估疾病的长期趋势。结果：在这10年中，该系统报告了38982567例病例和126372例死亡。艾滋病导致的死亡比例从2005年的12％增加到2014年的78％。有六种季节指数范围大于2的疾病：登革热，日本脑炎，钩端螺旋体病，炭疽，脑脊髓膜炎和麻疹。在这28种疾病中，梅毒的发病率增长最快，经季节性调整后每月平均增加0.018626 / 10万。结论：有效的监测有助于更好地了解传染病的感染行为。这将大大促进疾病的控制和管理。

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