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Sustainable transport development and passenger transport demand in Poland

机译：波兰的可持续交通发展和客运需求

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摘要

Development of sustainable transportation is a process which involves promoting efficient transport systems meeting social expectations, while reducing any sub-optimal or harmful effects on public health, natural environment, economy and urban planning. Therefore, in the case of passenger transport, the most effective measure to achieve sustainable transport development is to maximize the share of public transport. This paper analyses trends in changes of demand for passenger transport in European Union Member States, in Poland and in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, including in urban and non-urban areas. Based on collected data and extensive transport-related research of the authors, including surveys of residents, the most important conditions have been defined which affect passenger transport demand in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, and a forecast has been attempted of the demand in three different scenarios of economic development (optimistic, stable and regressive) for various years. The projected public transport demand has been established on the basis of simulations using a proprietary transport model. Results of these calculations revealed surprising conclusions which indicate unfavourable trends in changes of the analysed demand and insignificant differences in projected transport needs, regardless of the selected economic development option for the country and the province.
机译：可持续交通运输的发展是一个过程，其中包括促进满足社会期望的高效交通运输系统，同时减少对公共卫生，自然环境，经济和城市规划的任何次佳或有害影响。因此，就客运而言，实现可持续交通发展的最有效措施是最大化公共交通的份额。本文分析了欧盟成员国，波兰以及库贾斯科-波莫尔斯基省（包括城市和非城市地区）的客运需求变化趋势。基于收集的数据和作者对交通运输的广泛研究，包括对居民的调查，确定了影响库贾沃斯克-波莫尔斯基省客运需求的最重要条件，并尝试了在三种不同情况下的需求预测多年的经济发展状况（乐观，稳定和回归）。预计的公共交通需求是在使用专有交通模型进行模拟的基础上确定的。这些计算结果揭示了令人惊讶的结论，这些结论表明分析的需求变化的不利趋势以及预计的运输需求的微不足道，而与该国家和省份选择的经济发展方案无关。

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