By using time-lapse photomicroscopy, the individual cycle times and sizes at bud emergence were measured for a population of saccharomyces cerevisiae cells growing exponentially under balanced growth conditions in a specially constructed filming slide. There was extensive variability in both parameters for daughter and parent cells. The data on 162 pairs of siblings were analyzed for agreement with the predictions of the transition probability hypothesis and the critical-size hypothesis of yeast cell proliferation and also with a model incorporating both of these hypotheses in tandem. None of the models accounted for all of the experimental data, but two models did give good agreement to all of the data. The wobbly tandem model proposes that cells need to attain a critical size, which is very variable, enabling them to enter a start state from which they exit with first order kinetics. The sloppy size control model suggests that cells have an increasing probability per unit time of traversing start as they increase in size, reaching a high plateau value which is less than one. Both models predict that the kinetics of entry into the cell division sequence will strongly depend on variability in birth size and thus will be quite different for daughters and parents of the asymmetrically dividing yeast cells. Mechanisms underlying these models are discussed.
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