首页> 外文期刊>The Astrophysical journal >Predicting the Next Outbursts of OJ 287 in 2006-2010
【24h】

Predicting the Next Outbursts of OJ 287 in 2006-2010

机译:预测2006-2010年OJ 287的下一次爆发

获取原文
           

摘要

In its nearly regular cycle of outbursts the quasar OJ 287 is due for another outburst season in 2006-2010. The prediction for the exact timing depends on the adopted model. In the precessing binary model of Lehto and Valtonen the timing depends on the time delay between the impact on the primary disk and the time when the impacted gas becomes optically thin. The time delay in turn depends on the properties of the accretion disk, the accretion rate, and the viscosity parameter α, which are not exactly known. We study the flexibility in timing provided by the uncertainties. In order to fix the model, two methods are used: the wobble of the jet, induced by the secondary, and the timing of the 1956 outburst, which has not been previously used. As a result, rather definite dates for the outbursts are obtained, which are different from a straightforward extrapolation of the past light curve. A new optical light curve with many new historical as well as recent points of observation have been put together and has been analyzed in order to reach these conclusions. Also, the high-frequency radio observations are found to agree with the jet wobble picture.
机译:准星OJ 287的爆发周期几乎是定期的,预计在2006-2010年将是另一个爆发季节。准确时间的预测取决于所采用的模型。在Lehto和Valtonen的进动二元模型中,时间取决于对主磁盘的撞击与被撞击的气体变得光学稀薄的时间之间的时间延迟。时间延迟又取决于吸积盘的特性,吸积率和粘度参数α,这些特性尚不清楚。我们研究了不确定因素在时间安排上的灵活性。为了修正该模型,使用了两种方法:由次生引起的射流摆动和之前未使用的1956年爆发时间。结果,获得了相当确定的爆发日期,这与过去的光曲线的直接推断不同。为了得到这些结论,已经对一条具有许多新的历史和近来观测点的新的光曲线进行了汇总和分析。另外,发现高频无线电观测结果与喷气摆动的图像一致。

著录项

获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号